Dont Bet Against Tesla while Bullish Strength Exists

6 Sep 2023

Hi guys. This is a Technical Analysis on Tesla (TSLA) on the 3 Day chart.

BRUH.......I was aspecting prices to be around the FIB retracement levels i pointed out in my previous ideas (200-220 range) a little longer. Though its still possible we can retrace back down from this current area. BUT Some bullish signs exist, therefore in my opinion we are Bullish until Proven Otherwise.

Jumping in, our current move is fueled by our Major bounce from a Critical Confluence of Supports.

We have the RED ZONE
We have the Black trendline
We have the 50 SMA

We are also ABOVE the 21 EMA, which when support is Confirmed it indicated UPTRENDS. As long as we respect the 21 EMA and stay above it.

Volume is picking up as well. WHich is also indicative of the current move. To break ABOVE resistance lines, we need to continue to see VOLUME increase.

MACD is also showing signs of waning Bearish Momentum, with Light Red histobar prints and flattening of the Blue line.
We need to avoid printing a Dark Red Bar. Instead see print of Green bars with a Bullish Cross.

RSI is also getting close to testing the Black moving average i have added. The way i use this is: Usually if RSI is ABOVE the Moving AVerage, it signifies UPtrends.

But do note: This current candle closes on the 8th of September.

And note that we are hitting some Major Resistance Area. There is always a risk of sell off. BUt as long as we continue the current trends in volume, stay above the moving averages, and maintain patterns in indicators Uptrend will continue.

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Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.

Stay tuned for more updates on TSLA in the near future.

If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.

DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.

12 Sep 2023

Catatan

Can't go wrong with TSLA! More Bullish developments after another.

On the Daily timeframe, we are approaching a GOLDEN CROSS.

Between the 21 EMA and the 50 SMA.

If you look left, notice the previous Golden cross. It catapulted prices from the $178 level all the way to $300.

Before this though for our current price action, i am aspecting a test of Support on the 50 SMA and RED horizontal Resistance turned Support.

Before we are off to the races. This can be an opportunity to add to your positions once we CONFIRM SUPPORT.

12 Sep 2023

Catatan

expecting* instead of aspecting lol. Forget how to spell when i dive into charting.

18 Sep 2023

Catatan

Tesla still showing signs of Bullishness, in my opinion.

Notice how the last 3 times Price action went below 21 EMA, each time we have a sharp decline in the number of bars/days we stayed below.

21 EMA is a MA many people use to determine Buy zones. I think this pattern, signifies an increase in BUllish sentiment. The demand to get into Tesla increaased so much below the 21 EMA that our recent dip BELOW to $212, only had us under for 8 days.

Under the 21 EMA and interaction with the Black Support line created nice price bounces with the presence of a MACD Bullish cross.

But each time diminishing in % gains.

In my opinion, provided we get this MACD Bullish Cross, there is a chance we reach the $400 level. With diminish returns, it makes sense. Each bounce off the Support Line weakening in intensity. This current bounce would be our 3 touch point as well. Which is inline with trend line theory.

18 Sep 2023

Catatan

Another Show of Bullishness.

Observance of a Golden Cross between the 21 EMA over the 50 SMA on the 1 Day chart.

With steady increase in Volume. This good sign. Volume must continue to increase.

25 Sep 2023

Catatan

We've come down about 15% from our current top of around $278.

So question i would ask would be Are we still in an UPtrend? Well.....
Until Proven Otherwise our Uptrend is Intact.

Trading is better done in Steps and after confirmation a previous step was supported or broken.

Note we have come back down to Test a Critical Support that has Held our Uptrend since Tesla traded around $100.

If we maintain this. We are good.
If we don't maintain this, and break to the downside. We will need to reassess and the Uptrend maybe over.

So it is absolutely crucial if you want TSLA or want to trade TSLA to continue to monitor it. I will be looking for signs of Support, as my opinion is we see $400 TSLA before a downtrend.

Ill be watching TSLA like a hawk and advice you to do so as well. ANy new developments i will update so make sure to tune in.

25 Sep 2023

Catatan

We had a sharp decline from $278 level.

Followed by with Today's candle close printing a HAMMER candle.

Hammer candles are known to be powerful Reversal signals specially seen in downtrends.

It doesn't matter how long the downtrend has gone for or % declines. If a Hammer pattern appears, we need to consider that there is a high PROBABILITY of a Reversal to Upside.

The next candle should appear and close ABOVE the head of the Hammer.

The Wick of the Hammer, shows Buy pressure from 2 Support lines:
1. the Sloping Major trendline from Dec.2022
2. Horizontal support line from June 2023.

Great sign so far.

What would be amazing is i a Hammer signal prints on the current 3 day candle. Note how the update above this one shows that the current 3 day candle is forming a Lower Wick.
If tomorrow price moves up higher, its likely we print a hammer on 3 day. That could be even more powerful.

Stay tuned.

2 Okt 2023

Catatan

Update for TSLA on the 1 Day timeframe

Notice today, we've bounced Confirming Support off the Major Support Trendline.

As long as we close at the end of the trading day, it is a WIN for the Bulls.

Notice we are attempting to get Above the 21 EMA (Purple Moving Average).

Key is to confirm Support on 21 EMA.

STOCH RSI is looking to Cross Bullish Above 20 level. Once we do so, this will bring in momentum for the Bulls.

MACD is also supporting waning Bearish momentum. Look for Bullish cross and Green histobar prints.

I stand by the statement: We are Bullish until proven otherwise.

HOWEVER do note: We are reaching some MAJOR resistance levels ABOVE us.

The 1st level, is some serious Resistance. If you apply this line and look left, you notice that as time has past we have had more and more difficulty staying Above this line. This could indicate a possible rejection here. We need to monitor how price action reacts.

5 Okt 2023

Catatan

"We are in an UPTREND Until Proven Otherwise"

Notice the Moving Average Trio Present

When Price Action maintains ABOVE 50 SMA
While the Moving Averages are Stacked in order from Top to Bottom:
50 SMA (Green)
100 SMA (Blue)
200 SMA (Red)

This is normally an indicator that the asset is in a Bullish Uptrend.

As long as this is maintained we see Price gains

But once that changes I.e. Green crosses below Blue. Indicates Trend change/ potential reversal.

We have recently moved back ABOVE the 50 SMA, while in this Bullish stacked up pattern seen in Moving Averages

Watch to maintain Support here.
Watch for Fakeout.

ALso Notice we have headed straight towards serious Resistances.

We are currently battling the Horizontal line at around $258-260. If we can maintain Above this. This will be a strong case for Bullishness.

ALso Notice the STOCH RSI, we have crossed BULLISH ABOVE 20 level. This is an indication that there is momentum present in TSLA. It will provide us the necessary "juice" to push us through resistance.

What will also be a Bullish sign is if we get Bullish patterns in INdicators on larger timeframes.

Which is becoming the case for the STOCH RSI on the 3 Day timeframe for TSLA.

We are currently battling some Resistance that has given us trouble since July this year.

If we pass this, the most critical challenge for TSLA would be battling the MAJOR Resistance that has kept us in a downtrend since NOvember 2021.

Becoming more and more critical for TSLA. Don't remove your eyes from TSLA charts.

7 Okt 2023

Catatan

Some of the Daily Bullishness has infected the 3 Day timeframe.

We are now Above the Horizontal Resistance, we've had trouble staying ABOVE in the past. ( We have NOT yet CONFIRMED however, keep this in mind.)

We are also back ABOVE the 200 SMA on 3 Day. This is momumental.
If we confirm SUPPORT here, we could have some serious gains in the future.

The 50 SMA has CROSSED Over the Blue 100 SMA. Creating our first Golden Cross opportunity in some time on 3 Day chart.

If we can get the 50 SMA & 100 SMA to CROSS Above 200 SMA, where from Top to Bottom we have 50 SMA, 100SMA, and 200 SMA. This is an extremely bullish Moving Average Pattern leading to the "serious gains" referenced above.
(Maybe even all time highs, but stay tuned for that discussion)

VOLUME has had steady consistent increase the last 5 Bars. This is a great sign, we need continual increase in Volume, to be able to pierce our Major Resistances ABOVE.

On top of that, we have had our STOCH RSI Bullish Cross, from 1 Day push a cross in 3 Day. This indicates that momentum will help push prices up. Key would be to get ABOVE the Previous High and Move Above 80 level.

RSI has also printed a BUllish pattern, where it has moved ABOVE the Moving Average, i added. When RSI moves ABove Moving Average, it indicates Uptrends.
What needs to happen here also, is that we need to also Print a Higher high in RSI.

If you've taken positions: Remember stay humble, dont get cocky. Continual monitoring is KEY. As we are now in a crucial point for TSLA.

We still have 2 Resistance ABove us now.
1. Intermediate Resistance, holding us down for couple months.
2. MAJOR MAJOR Resistance, that has kept us down since Nov. 2021

We will be testing these Resistances, in the coming days to couple weeks.

These current Bullish signs do have the momentum to push us above, but it must maintain this current trajectory stated above. Any changes, will lead me to question the integrity of the move.

16 Okt 2023

Catatan

Assessed on the 1 day timeframe. Need to observe day to day this week.

We are still Bullish until proven otherwise. But clear cut warning signs are now beginning to flash.

Last weeks Movements on TSLA has us BELOW $260 Resistance line, as we could not maintain Support here.

Upper wicks of 2 candles indicates a Clear rejection from the "Resistance last couple months" trendline.

We are now back at testing Support on the trendline that has kept us in an UPtrend since January of this year.

But now there is clear Resistance pressures pushing us down.

The Support line is a CRITICAL line. If we cannot hold this SUpport line. We will be moving down further to create more Oversold conditions.

Look to the $240 area as our next line of defence or Support.

OUr Volume is also showing signs of declining volume. This supports why we couldnt break Above Resistance. We need to see a rise and or Spike in volume.

RSI has created a HIgher low. Indicating a weakening in Bullish momentum. Key is to print a HIgher high above previous Peak. We also Do NOT want to see a Lower low, which would indicate/ confirm the desire of price action to create more oversold conditions, in theory pushing us further down.

STOCH RSI has crossed Bearish and is Below 80 level, indicating the presence of Bearish Momentum. This is a warning sign and tells me that there is RISK of falling Below support line.

MACD is also currently in the process of a Bearish cross, a confirmation of this cross may increase Risk of not being able to hold Support here.

Along with Earnings this week. We need to be a little cautious. Current bearish developments and negative earnings can push us down further. A confirmation below the Support line, will not be a good look for TSLA. This will require re-assessment. First level is the $240 level, if we confirm below $240 we can be re-testing our $215 previous low. We will also have to assess how lower timeframes like the Daily imapct the larger timeframes moving forward, which will help us assess the downside potential.

Important to pay attention this week.

19 Okt 2023

Catatan

Sometimes you are just on the wrong side of things. But thats why Risk management is most essential, adjustments and spreading out buys is key.

I have been stopped out of my positions taken around the 240-250 range for 5% loss.

Now the TA UPDATE

We have our WARNING right in our faces now.

On the 1 Day timeframe we have BROKEN the Major Support Trendline maintaining our Uptrend since Jan 2023.

We have also moved BELOW the 2nd Support level, at around $240. But have not yet confirmed here.

Giving us the sign that this Uptrend is attempting to change.

The sell pressure from the Resistances ABOVE was strong ones.

Note however, at our current levels it is a Higher Low. Indicating that we are still managing to maintain the bigger picture Uptrend for now (since $100).

We must absolutely not Confirm BELOW 215ish.

Whats needed of us to resume Uptrend
1. Influx of BUY pressure
2. Have price retrace our current 10% decline a decent amount
3. Needs to be done by Tomorrow (Fridays) close
4. Print of an Inverted Hammer for todays candle. (High probability downtrend reversal sign)
5. Fill the gap right away
6. Small candle body close. (This would indicate weakening sell demand.

RSI on the daily has reached Oversold conditions BUT currently can go lower. Giving risk of further downside. Keep an eye.

STOCH RSI is also crossed Bearish moving towards 20 level, until we get a BULLISH Cross and a Move back Above 20 level. Bearish momentum will continue.

So its important to see how we react here. We need to see Volume come in and buys come in.

19 Okt 2023

Catatan

* note point #1 "Influx of BUY pressure" should be seen in Intraday timeframes like 15 minute, 1hr etc.

Also note that another point we'd like to see is a Large Lower Wick.

The more of the points we fulfill the better.

19 Okt 2023

Catatan

An interesting finding within Intraday timeframe: specifically 4 hr timeframe.

We are at the Lowest RSI print of 17 since December 2022, the start of our Uptrend Rally from $100.

The RSI back then was 15. Showing a Higher low pattern on the 4 hr. Which spans over 6+ months of price action.

If we can maintain this, might be a hint that we are still good for holding Uptrend. (It just means it may take some more time to build momentum to break Resistance.

BUT just note: Higher timeframes do show signs of further potential RSI declines, putting at risk further price Declines. Other indicators/ signs for the time being need to cool off to oversold as well on higher timeframes.

(Note: not financial advice but this could be an area, provided other evidence supports, a place to take short term swing positions for a bounce based on 4 hr only) RSI alone should not be what you use to take short term trade positions, especially smaller timeframes. Its more useful for macro timeframes.

Lets see what happens.