TSLA At a Crossroads: Bounce or Breakdown for Oct 3?

Intraday Technical Outlook (15m Chart)
Tesla (TSLA) saw a sharp selloff, sliding from the mid-$470s to close near $439.35. On the 15-minute chart, the structure is now hugging a descending support line:
* MACD: Still deep in bearish territory but showing early signs of momentum cooling as histogram bars lighten.
* Stoch RSI: Reset from extreme oversold levels, suggesting potential for a relief bounce.
* Key Levels: Immediate support rests around $435–432, with a breakdown exposing $425–420. On the upside, first resistance is $445, followed by a more critical level at $452.5.
Intraday takeaway: Short-term traders should watch if TSLA holds above $435. A sustained bounce can spark a retrace to $445–452, while failure risks another leg lower toward $425.

Options Sentiment & GEX Outlook (1H Chart)

The 1-hour GEX map paints a decisive risk zone for tomorrow’s trade:
* Gamma Walls:
* $452.5–460: Strong call resistance cluster, where sellers likely re-emerge.
* $439.5: Key gamma pivot — trading below this opens up bearish flows.
* $432 / $425 / $420: Heavy put walls acting as magnets if weakness persists.
* Implications:
* Holding above $439.5 can squeeze shorts toward $445–452.5, offering upside for quick calls.
* Losing $435 confirms dealer hedging pressure lower, opening room to $425–420, favoring puts.
* Volatility Context: IVR at 26.9 vs IVx avg 65.2 shows premiums are mid-range but still elevated. This means intraday traders may prefer spreads over outright calls/puts to balance risk/reward.

My Thoughts & Recommendation
For Oct 3 trading, Tesla is sitting right at a critical gamma pivot.
* Intraday (scalping/trading): Look for a bounce play off $435, with upside targets at $445–452 if momentum aligns. A breakdown below $432 favors continuation toward $425–420.

* Options trading (swing/0DTE): Call positions only make sense above $439.5, with tight stops and targets capped near $452. Put strategies (vertical spreads or debit puts) look stronger if price fails at $439.5 and rolls back toward $425.

Bias heading into Oct 3: Cautiously bearish unless $439.5 is reclaimed with volume.

Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk before trading.