Now me thinks TSLA needs to go up... FAST

6 Agu

I've kept this simple for now as I'm away at the moment, but we're looking at the AS to UT territory now, so it's just going to be full zoomies up IMO.

As we get more structure in from this bottom, I'll update the post on a smaller timeframe for more accuracy, but you can have a look at my previous post and read through the updates for an idea of what I'm getting at (nothing's changed, that idea was just getting too long to scroll through + the general idea is LONG now).

[[CLICK THIS CHART ABOVE TO GO TO PREVIOUS IDEA]]

8 Agu

Catatan

So we're still moving around a bit at this bottom, but I'm not worried - still think it's going to rip up soon.

Just to lift this from my previous TSLA idea, we are still in at around 5 on the count, and it eventually always rockets up (assuming I haven't missed something of course).



On the bigger picture, we are looking at something like this at present, which once this uptrend move to 8 (or $300 I should say), will come back down pretty savage to test $140 and close that gap (and then some).



Thoughts? Let me know if I've missd something.

9 Agu

Catatan

So just trying to decide what could be a trigger to the upside, and TUES + WED next week both have fundamentals that could send it, so for now this looks like where we are at.

12 Agu

Catatan

Still in one of those "im right until im wrong" situations.

Nothing has changed though from my last idea or this one, just playing waiting game/moving goal posts as per.

Tell me otherwise if you think so of course...

12 Agu

Catatan

Current working idea on small time frame:



accumulation phase looking like it's nearing the end, which we'll see a move up this week IMO if I've tracked this correctly.

13 Agu

Catatan

OK so as it stands, i think this orange box correlates with where we are at present. So with that in mind, we're following the green arrow (until we aren't).

I think tomorrow's fundamentals might be the strong move to the upside.

13 Agu

Catatan

(but obviously it could be just another consolidation, so pinch of salt at the ready)

15 Agu

Catatan

OK so this is possibly the "fast" movement up I've been looking for that'll keep going.

May be another consolidation in this 210-215 range before another bigger leg up.

Not even going to try and scalp at this point though, just let it run and look at other trade options until we get up to that 270+ range at least.

15 Agu

Catatan

Not sure if something is wrong with my computer or TV, but the links are still working even if not showing in the comments as thumbnails, but regardless, here's my current thinking:



One thing that makes me feel we're on the right track is that 5 can often dip outside of what i've labelled as the "main uptrend line" - this happens often at the 5 count on TSLA, and then it comes back above the line and continues the uptrend.

So for now, I think we are at B, though I'm not ruling out A as this could be a short term faKeout and we head back down sub 200 before the real rip to the upside.

We have a small time frame gap at 200 range from today's move up. If we dip out tomorrow to the downside sub 210-205 range, then this consolidation phase isn't over.

Though as it stands, I think we are in the orange box in the example to the left, and this keeps firing over the next trading days going into next week.

Thoughts?

15 Agu

Catatan

FYI i'm referring to examples like this on the right where it's more obvious than others, and you can see 5 dips outside of the uptrend before heading back inside.



I know this goes against what should be considered in technical analysis, but IMO it's a thing and I've seen it before. I'll try to post some more similar ideas over the coming days to see if it is a thing or I've just remembered it all wrong.

The fundamentals coming up aren't giving me much in terms of how it moves TSLA, so I can only put it down to a fundamental piece of news we don't know about, be that a new car, robotaxi coming out sooner, or whatever.

16 Agu

Catatan

Here's just a quick snapshot on a few uptrends of what I'm getting at about when TSLA drops the main trendline before ripping to the upside, marked each time we were at the same point we are now with the blue arrows (not always of course like at the pink arrow, where it stays the trend).

20 Agu

Catatan

Still working with this idea in mind to fire up, nothing has changed.

You can see from the previous uptrend starting 11th June, TSLA ramps exponentially.
I believe the same thing is happening now despite today's pullback.

Support level areas of interest to me are looking like

215-220 range
210 range
200 range worst case.

Ideally, I wouldn't like to see any lower than 210 range though, but as previous stated, I'm not playing with this too much (did 1x scalp to 220 today from 228, but that's it as this could fire any moment.

At the top side of this idea (i.e. at 6), i'm marking 6 conservatively for now until we've reached what I think to be around 6 (200 range).

After that, I'll start building an idea of where I think 7 + 8 will head before falling out much more.



Fundamentally, we've got FOMC minutes, which typically don't move the market (like NFP would for example) but the overarching conversation could be a catalyst.

Jackson Hole Symposium could also be a trigger, but we won't see that reaction until Thursday premarket, and it could just keep firing up all day without any closing of gap.

21 Agu

Catatan

Hidden bullish divergence showing on RSI, which from my previous TSLA idea turned out to be a false positive, but we knew it was as it just didn't fit the idea I had of it going down.

This time around though, I think it will be our fast move up... we've just been hovering all day which for me, makes me feel a hard move is incoming finally (hopefully to the upside).

And further along the chart this goes, the higher the resistance position is = TSLA will go even higher, so I'm all for this.

Thoughts?

21 Agu

Catatan

Here's what happened just recently on the move from 200 to 220 range after the same hidden bullish divergence setup, and we saw an 8% move to the upside (green box).



This time though, i'm expecting an even stronger move up, hence the little movement today...

21 Agu

Catatan

Just further confirmation bias...

It looks like an inverse H&S pattern to me, which would mean a move up to 290 range at least (green circle).

This also would be hitting the 3 month VWAP indicator resistance range and obviously our resistance line we've had drawn up for a while.

21 Agu

Catatan

FOMC short of it: "rates unchanged"

The lack of rate cuts by the FOMC suggests confidence in the economy but also implies higher borrowing costs, controlled inflation, and potentially less stimulus for the market.

Rates haven't been cut for ages though, and just visually, here's what happened the last 2 FOMC minutes...

Meeting held Apr/May30-1 (RED CIRCLE)
(Released May 22, 2024) (GREEN CIRCLE)
= TSLA still goes parabolic a few weeks later (YELLOW ARROW)



Meeting held June11-12 (RED CIRCLE)
(Released July 03, 2024) (GREEN CIRCLE)
= TSLA still dips a few weeks later (YELLOW ARROW)



CASE AND POINT: market (or at least TSLA) isn't influenced enough by FOMC minutes, but yeah we knew this, and I'll be looking at other upcoming fundamental news to be a potential catalyst (be it on the economic calendar, or otherwise).

Anyone any suggestions for what could be the story to the upside?

22 Agu

Catatan

Should have realised that neckline idea would have rejected strong before breaking, but that's OK, just missed a good scalp opportunity today (caught some but not nearly as much as I could have).

Think 215 range will be the bounce area for now, let's see how we get on...

22 Agu

Catatan

Working idea for now - will close my scalp short position when we get down to 215 (just below likely)

23 Agu

Catatan

OK so we ripped through the above green uptrend support seen in the previous comment, but I'm not too worried for now as we knew 210 range was a support before, and I was perhaps overly keen to think that it was going to just keep sailing up without any kind of pullback.

As it did, I took a short scalp position to cover myself, and have since closed it this morning in pre market.

At present, this is the working idea.



We need to retest the 225 range again, and then these 2 inverse H&S patterns will come in to their own.

23 Agu

Catatan

I'm also very cautious of the fact that this could drop out (and beginning to believe it will before we reach 6)...

While 4 to 5 was achieved to hit the support running from 2, you can see that before heading up to 6, it does touch the PINK support line at least twice in previous examples (and this happens every time from what I can see even if at different times in the pattern), and so far we've only touched it once.



With market trickery in mind, this would line up nicely as it would catch a whole lot of people (like myself almost) out and trigger stop/losses + bring shorts back in to the game to believe they have a chance (but i'm still convinced they definitely don't, least not mid term).

23 Agu

Catatan

I've marked the chart with the GREEN + ORANGE arrows as possible moves - I don't think the orange is an option, but I'm going to do some more back testing on this, as it was just an absolute "worst case scenario" to keep an eye on (but ultimately doesn't make enough sense for the 5 to 6 move IMO).

23 Agu

Catatan

Here's part of my reasoning for more drop out...

I should have been watching the count on smaller time frames, because to me this looks complete so a new one needs to begin.

And given the likeness to a rising wedge pattern, this could mean we are in for some fall out sub 200 again.

Thoughts?

23 Agu

Catatan

FYI - all of this does not invalidate the bigger picture pattern - the target is still 270+, it just MIGHT take a little longer to get there while the shorts take a hold for a minute or 2.

What it might do though is see me close my long position around 220-225 and go short for the interim.

I'm currently thinking a fall out to 195-200 range (which would answer to the wedge pattern fallout target), then we continue our move up for 5 to 6.

23 Agu

Catatan

Have gone short at just above 220. Closed long position for now and will look to reenter lower down. Will scalp rest of the day.

23 Agu

Catatan

Current idea... it's going sub 200.

24 Agu

Catatan

I've started a new idea as this one was getting too long, so if you're still following, continue from here (click image to go to new idea):