CRB Index: Impact on Commodities, Inflation, and the Dollar

3 Sep 2024

It’s been some time since we last looked at the Thomson Reuters CRB Index, a key indicator for tracking commodity performance and gauging inflation. With inflation softening recently, it’s not surprising that the CRB Index is also reversing. The chart shows a three-wave rally from the 2023 lows, which suggests a corrective movement in an ABC formation, as identified in Elliott Wave theory.

When a correction like this concludes, the next move typically retraces the previous rally. Looking at the CRB Index, we expect prices to move even lower, possibly down to 241. This decline could be further driven by falling crude oil prices, especially if OPEC increases supply as recently announced.

Some may wonder how this will impact the USD. Currently, the correlation is that lower commodities lead to lower CPI, which in turn suggests a lower USD due to expectations of Fed rate cuts. Until the Fed cuts rates a few times, the correlation between a lower CRB and a lower USD could remain in play due to falling US yields. However, once rate cuts are nearing their end, that’s when the dollar may find a bottom.

4 Sep 2024

Catatan

Crude oil broke down yesterday, ideally headed lower from a bearish triangle, so more weakness on energy can surely impact on other commodities, and lower inflation expectations as well. Should watch yields too then!