TLT nearing bottom
Still in line with my previous analysis. I approach this from an Elliot Wave perspective with Fibonacci relationship.
To me this looks like a macro ABC with final leg down reaching extremes. We are likely in a bullish divergence territory on a Weekly Chart.
The chart above is Daily for easier wave count to pin point where C might end. The support box is in gray; this is an area where a price could react with a strong bounce or reversal. As you can see we are already there so support could be found very soon.
Another fib support coming up in the 90-96 range where I feel there is a strong possibility for a bottom (not guaranteed, hunting bottoms is a dangerous game).
If we take a trend line in wave C from ii to iv and measure the trajectory of where v should end, it also points at a region of 90-96. If the market presents this opportunity it has a number of supports coming together all in that particular area. This bottom could mark the top in US10Y and other treasury bonds since they move inverse to TLT. Also the dollar index is hinting at a top and pushing extremes so I expect a reversal or a top in Sep-Oct timeframe. The month of September / October (2022) might come with fire works!
Not a financial advice.
Cheers,
To me this looks like a macro ABC with final leg down reaching extremes. We are likely in a bullish divergence territory on a Weekly Chart.
The chart above is Daily for easier wave count to pin point where C might end. The support box is in gray; this is an area where a price could react with a strong bounce or reversal. As you can see we are already there so support could be found very soon.
Another fib support coming up in the 90-96 range where I feel there is a strong possibility for a bottom (not guaranteed, hunting bottoms is a dangerous game).
If we take a trend line in wave C from ii to iv and measure the trajectory of where v should end, it also points at a region of 90-96. If the market presents this opportunity it has a number of supports coming together all in that particular area. This bottom could mark the top in US10Y and other treasury bonds since they move inverse to TLT. Also the dollar index is hinting at a top and pushing extremes so I expect a reversal or a top in Sep-Oct timeframe. The month of September / October (2022) might come with fire works!
Not a financial advice.
Cheers,
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