TLT Roadmap Dec 2023
Yields are likely in early stages of significant multi-month retrace lower into summer 2024
Catatan
Good startCatatan
Early stageCatatan
More pulling back aheadCatatan
Should start turning upCatatan
Very good price action following the expected pathCatatan
I made a mistake with the instrument here, instead of TLT should have used IEF as 10 yr yields will fall faster than 30 yr yieldsCatatan
It is highly likely that this upswing starting Oct 2023 extends into Oct 2025. Obviously no straight line but some correction starting Aug into Oct 2024Catatan
Entertaining to say the leastCatatan
Market participants are fully imposing the Trump trade across asset markets. This most likely will form a triangle (currently D wave forming to the downside) before new highs in yields/lows in bondsCatatan
Bonds setting initial low on that decline likely this weekCatatan
JP was a bit hesitant yesterday which is incrementally hawkish (as was Logan). I was very confident that this will happen once DJT wins. More cuts will further destabilize yieldsCatatan
Probably quick rally this weekCatatan
Market was already sniffing the appointment of Scott Bessent as Treasury Sec as an outspoken deficit hawk
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