A thought for Theta

31 Des 2019

Based on recent price action...

Everything's noted on the chart, but essentially we potentially have another IHS forming at the moment (see the prior one marked up), where the right shoulder is possibly being suppressed by the 12MA into the bid zone (1180-1210). If it plays out it should bounce around there to a breakout and retest of the neckline for continuation.

Targets:
1533
1644
1858 (and re-assess)
2122 (and re-assess)

This is invalidated by a breakdown below the potential right shoulder (in which case, forget the trade) or a more immediate break and retest of the neckline (in which case, bid the retest of the neckline).

1 Jan 2020

Catatan

Trade active, bids being filled. So far approx 30% of intended position.

Let's see how it goes from here. Chart updated with a blue box to show bid zone.

2 Jan 2020

Catatan

Approx 90% of position now filled overnight with a wick down into the bid zone. Continuing to assess as things develop but so far it's following the plan. Only slight concern is that the 26MA is travelling downwards a little more steeply than I'd like, which may mean that the IHS gets invalidated if it continues that path. Let's see.

2 Jan 2020

Catatan

Price has bounced from the right shoulder area on the current 4hr candle (the rather excellent Crypto Shelby tweeted it which may have something to do with that twitter.com/CryptoNewton/status/1212695719280336896)

There's a consideration that the neckline may actually be more like the purple line added to the below. The chart's getting a bit messy now, must clean it up at some stage soon. I'll probably take some profit if we break the neckilne on high volume and add more on a retest of it.

3 Jan 2020

Catatan

A rejection at the neckline yesterday and then the BTC dump kept things a bit quiet before the pump pushed price lower. Still, a chance to get some more bids filled.

So far, action's following the plan, currently sitting around breakeven. Now we want to see a bounce if the right shoulder is indeed that. And we want to see volume coming in.

4 Jan 2020

Catatan

Breakout? Would be nice to see this daily close above the neckline.

5 Jan 2020

Catatan

Didn't get the daily close above the neckline but we do have an ascending triangle forming on low time frame right underneath it. This should normally lead to a breakout.

Another good to chance to add or buy.

I'm levelling up my stops on my asks in the meantime.

5 Jan 2020

Catatan

Breakout.

Now we need to see a 4hr and daily close above the neckline before, preferably, a spike above it and a retest and hold of it to confirm the strength of this move. At that point, I may add more.

5 Jan 2020

Catatan

What we don't want is another trip back down like that last time we broke this level, see left-hand side of the chart.

6 Jan 2020

Catatan

Meant to write an update but posted a comment below by mistake. In the interests of chronology, a re-post...

Seems we have a new level to watch as the 1270-1280 zone should now act as support. I've added another interim TP at 1385 as BTC is stirring a bit and I want to secure profit when it's there to be secured.

So far, the plan is going to plan.

7 Jan 2020

Catatan

Trade nuked by BTC volatility. Stopped in profit overnight. Will re-assess once BTC has calmed down.