Long-term view on TGT- Weekly Chart

2 Apr 2017

Target has really taken a beating lately, primarily due to them losing market share to the mammoth Amazon. With the most resent earnings, TGT has broken down below what had been downward sloping support. My expectation is we will have a slight sell off early this week (week of 4/3/2017) but will ultimately retest the line that had been support, but will now be resistance, which should occur around TGT $61.50 area. In my view, TGT will then trade sideways/down and eventually break-down with speed to ultimately hit $43.60's area, or the 1.414 fib level. The timing lines up with my view of the overall market and also is a point where TGT will be hitting long-term support. Not a huge fan of retailers dwindling in market share but if this does occur, it may set up for a nice buy given their decent dividend and at that price it would be considered cheap. In summary, in my view, you can buy now for the short-term bounce to $61 but you don't want to be holding this stock once it reaches that level!! Wait to buy Early/Mid 2018.

27 Apr 2017

Catatan

So far so good on this initial bounce.