7/29/24 - $sym - Want to own, tough timing into print

29 Jul

7/29/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: SYM
Want to own, tough timing into print

- pretty cool concept, if you're unfamiliar, create robots/ automation for supply chain
- super shorted
- growing like a weed
- not amazing gross margins, but should scale in time. not burning but a lot of it stock comp - so call me neutral to meh/ "okay" with it bc it grows so quickly - so these people are clearly doing something right
- complicated relationship w/ softbank (no comment on softbank "publically" - read between the lines)
- not cheap, they'll trade at 40x on '25 EPS - which if you're a fund manager today is how you'd ""pitch"" it - note the double quotation marks
- but realistically in the immediate term, the gross profit isn't obviously scaling more than the opex from the last two prints. could change this print, but it's nothing i'd want to extrapolate in this market with an uber shorted stock.
- absolute valuation of $3 bn (ex. the cash) is in a good zone. so i'd not want to short it either (RIP to you guys I think in the MT/LT context)

- TL;DR it's just too confusing for a fed week with valuation where it's at, a SPAC too that's actually doing okay just raises an eyebrow no less, and a chart that looks a bit stuck. i'd expect some volatility here. probably a massive move one way or another. but i don't like my odds so i'll be on the sidelines. would LOVE to own it on a dip buy, though. so that's how i'll be playing the results.

gl fam, lmk if u have a more nuanced POV
and have a good wk, stay solvent

V

29 Jul

Catatan

Starter position 50 bps at $31. haven't even read the release yet. so going small. i like this one fundamentally as spelled out so happy to re-engage even if there's more downside. will revert w/ more deets as I have a non-opportunistic entry for larger size.

29 Jul

Catatan

Added more here $29.
- this isn't an easy one so if you don't need to play it - i'd probably stay away. i just like the biz/ unique niche and the growth is pretty great still.
- the rub here is obviously the guide-down on 4Q to about 50% growth (they did nearly 90% this q reported)
- if this was a less shorted > $10 bn company the stay away might be more obvious to me, but realistically they're still growing a lot more than you could say 95% of companies (probably closer to 99% of listed) but let's be conservative
- profitability flexing
- perhaps trades within the $20-$30 band for some time. but if your downside is 25-30% (max?) on a name like this and the growth expectations are already reset... this is probably a decent entry for multi-year compounding esp if you leave some ammo to grow larger the closer we nudge sub $25.

i'm about 1% position at this pt average ~$30.

29 Jul

Trading ditutup secara manual

I'm out for a small loss.
Need to find a better place to get financial data - i used to have access to BB and am used to thinks being correct. mkt cap in trading view is off by a MASSIVE factor.
- i cannot justify anything close to this share px at anything above $10 bn (i was justifying here thinking the valuation was in the ~3 bn range).
- forget it.
- 0% interested in holding this at that valuation.
- will double check my #s now on koyfin.
- does anyone else have a service that's more reliable than TV on fundamentals?

V