Setting Up For A Bounce

3 Okt 2023

For fun, no idea what I'm doing.

Depending on what happens tomorrow I think it's setting up for at least a bounce in the next few days, maybe for a couple of weeks.

Bottom graph has a line that suggests oversold. In my mind it is set up if the line remains below the dotted line tomorrow (Wednesday). If it goes up above then maybe toss the idea, it happened June and September 2022 where it gapped up, I tossed the idea but it still went up.

Maybe down early in the first part of the day, then reverse up and hard for the next few days? Bonus points if it just falls through the lower Bollinger, at which point I'll probably enter

From the low of Wednesday Oct 4 -
Let's Say
5% chance of ~+10% by Oct 9 (top yellow circle)
40% chance of +5.5% by Oct 9 (lower yellow circle)
60% chance of +5.5% by Oct 18 (right yellow circle)

Oh and this is kind of a copy/paste I really don't think it's going to go +10% this time, just when the setup happens there's a chance.

Green eclipse is things going according to the idea, above is a bonus, below is a fail.

You might be asking 40%? 60%? so you're flipping a coin? could go up, could go down? Well it's 40-60% chance of +5.5%, nothing is guaranteed and that's why you have responsible stops in place.

5 Okt 2023

Catatan

So we gapped up a little bit, and it did not meet what I look for, two days below the line.

It's wait and see now if we just rocket up anyway like the last two times, June/Sept last year, or if we go back down and do this all over again within a week.

Am I gonna be sad missing the boat again, or will it fulfill my requirements, it's been a while since it has.