New Elliott Wave Count for SPY

4 Mei 2018

As is frequently the case in Elliott Wave analysis, I have had to re-label my wave count. My assumption was that after the opening yesterday, May 3, we were in a minute wave iii)) of 3 down. Though this proved to be wrong, I still had one of my better trading days, buying puts at .97, selling the last ones 1.97.

Right now, my two most probable scenarios are that we are in wave E of the B)) wave triangle, and will soon enter wave C)) down. A break of the upper trendline of the triangle will negate this count.

My other scenario is that this is not a triangle, and Thursday's low was wave 2, and we are now in minor wave 3 up, of the next bull phase, probably wave V.

At this point, I'm not ready to pick one over the other. Will update as it plays out, if I'm not in the middle of a trade.

7 Mei 2018

Catatan

Over the weekend, I've been thinking that for the bullish case, rather than wave 3 up, is more likely wave 1 up, of wave V. In this case, Wave IV is the triangle since the all time high at the end of January. Same upper triangle border as in the above chart will confirm the breakout.