Possible 2023 Outcomes

2 Des 2022

All red and green lines are approximate clones of the first draw down. Channels are drawn periodically as market changes

3 Des 2022

Catatan

Lower blue line is long term post-GFC regression trend line. Movement may go above or below but will follow this trend line long term

3 Des 2022

Catatan

See my entire chart: tradingview.com/chart/0luKNs81/

3 Des 2022

Catatan

Up/down trend lines are clones of each other. The original was taken from earlier this year.

This trend line doesn't fit all drawdowns/breakouts but it is an approximate fit that seems to co-incide with our trend lines

4 Des 2022

Catatan

Unemployment still at 3.7. Fed Pivot not likely coming. Soft landing still possible.

5 Des 2022

Catatan

To answer some questions i've been getting:

In general, you could expect more lightning bolt shaped movements on the red/green lines. They're meant to show a trend, not really predict the future.

5 Des 2022

Catatan

max pain for 2022 Dec 16th is 390

6 Des 2022

Catatan

It's really fighting that 392 level

7 Des 2022

Catatan

Looks like we lost the trend line and our 392 support. Let's give it a day of follow through to see where it's ultimately going but this looks bearish for now.

13 Des 2022

Catatan

best of luck to you this week with fomc & cpi

we'll soon see where we'e headed

17 Des 2022

Catatan

looking at weekly, we have confirmation of a breakdown. Looking at VRP, not much holding us from 360s. LOTS of selling in the last few days. Just like this last Jun, lots of gaps opening up. went down by 10%. Those gaps didn't get filled for a couple of months.

30 Des 2022

Catatan

Maybe no santa rally this year :(

Market has pulled up to .382 fib retracement from recent down. will we make it to 0.5?

Yesterday, 28Dec22, we had the highest PCC ratio of the year. Hard for market to go down when people keep putting puts in the way