The SPY

18 Jul 2024

Uncertainty increasesd due to US politics.
Markets at ATHs
Price Divergence ; MACD
Collapsing volume

Look For:

Weekly Bearish Engulfing Confirmation.

Expectation:
5%-6.% pull back from highs,

Time Frame:
4-6 weeks

Guidelines:
Data Sensitive - Follow economic and political events closely.

27 Jul 2024

Trade aktif

Observations:

Peak -to- Trough she was down 4.7%
Claimed back 1.74% Friday,
Before giving some back.
She closed the week down 3.6% from ATH's.

Retrace to the 50D MA was completed.
June Gap Fill was completed.
PA tangled with the 50D MA for the latter part of the week.

Expectations:

Try not to have any. Remain tight until the major data is released next week.

Upcoming Data Releases:

Tuesday - JOLTS
Wednesday - Fed Rate Decision
Thursday - Manufacturing Print
Friday - Unemployment and NFP

Upcoming major earnings releases:

MSFT - CapEx spend important **
META - CapEx spend important **
Arm Hold. Possible entry opportunity
AMD - Possible entry opportunity
Boeing - Possible entry opportunity.
McDonalds - Consumer Discretionary is wobbling *
Mastercard - Consumer Discretionary is wobbling *

* Consumer comprises 70-80% of GDP. When they go, the market goes.
** CapEx: Important for the AI narrative (MSFT / META biggest NVDA customers)

Technical Analysis: (DAILY TF)
RSI mid range
Money Flow remains negative
MACD bearish w/ signal approaching 0

To quote Google from earlier in the week. Google:
" Better to Overspend, than underspend" [on the AI R&D .. which is essentially the purchase of NVDA's chips]