So thought I would do a little 'going into Friday' progress report, because, well why not. And also a lot of excitement happening.
This is not a full analysis, I haven't really run numbers or done any projections in my SAS software or looked at z-scores, this is just me recaping and telling you my thoughts based on the stats analysis I have already ran going into this week and just some of my stats based indicators, and just looking at the chart from a technical/chart pattern perspective. So here we go:
Recap:
- As you know, I was bullish with a TP of 421, which was the mathematically calculated top of range and bullish break for the week. We surpassed that so kudos to those who were long to this point! Thus SPY has affirmed a bullish break running up to about 424 today.
- If you followed my QQQ idea, you know I was bullish up to 330 TP. This was my mathematically calculated TP and we reached it today and immediately rejected back down.
- My trade today was short on SPY after rejection of 424 (for a day trade not a swing trade) and also some TSLA plays today (which is unfortunately likely going down more unfortunately, just FYI).
So is it a short?
Hmmmm! Good question. Everyone seems to want to short this now. But is it actually time?
- Well, from a technical perspective SPY is pretty over-extended, but one thing I have painfully learned in my, albeit short, 3 + years of trading is that over-extension ALONE is NOT a sufficient reason to short a stock. So what else do we have going on?
- Some news is going to be released tomorrow at 10 (Consumer sentiment). This does tend to have a small impact on the market and I do expect consumer sentiment to be less than optimistic so this is something to be weary of.
- The big names such as AMZN are ready to have some selling going on. TSLA included but I hate including TSLA because its no longer included on the S&P. All (except TSLA) are running hot on most major TF but refer to my first anecdote about shorting on over-extension alone).
- Running some projections into next week (I know, I said no analysis was run but I have run some out of curiosity, but please take this with a grain of salt because the data is insufficient without complete Friday data to run the analysis) puts a high range for next week around 429 (actually after today its around 430).
- There is a descending trend line above SPY which roughly correlates also with the 430 range.
- Futures is looking slightly heavy. It seems more like forced bullishness and more like a fear of shorting/selling than full fledge bullishness.
- Futures has a haphazard pipe ish top on the 4 hour chart (mind you pipe tops traditionally are viewed on the weekly, but I tend to bend the rules for chart patterns a bit when I have math to back it). See chart:
- Lastly, Friday's (aside from Friday's leading into a long weekend) are traditionally bearish. There are exceptions to this rule, but they tend to be bearish more frequently than not.
So is it actually a short?
-Maybe! I think shorting for pullback if you are a day trader or even swing trader is not unreasonable and my likely play tomorrow.
- But I can really go one step further and tell you some probabilities here using ES. Because ES opened at 1800 and I do have a stats indicator for it, I can tell you what you wanna see if you wanna short this so let's get into that:
If ES! Futures breaks past 4236, further bullishness is confirmed and I would wait for it to test 4253 before entering any short position for a swing or for intra-day pullback.
I am looking for short pullback today and my immediate TP for this pullback on futures is 4187. However, if ES does break past 4236 then this will no longer be my TP as the probability of reaching it is incredibly low. Right now, the probability of us reaching 4187 is fairly high based on the immediate PA I am seeing in futures. This is because futures has already made contact with the first bearish target (underlined in yellow) and has failed to touch any of the statistically calculated bullish targets. So let's see what happens!
Otherwise, for more longer term TP I will post that information after I have run more of analysis over the weekend.
That's it for now!
As always, take care, trade safe and leave your comments/questions and critiques below!
This is not a full analysis, I haven't really run numbers or done any projections in my SAS software or looked at z-scores, this is just me recaping and telling you my thoughts based on the stats analysis I have already ran going into this week and just some of my stats based indicators, and just looking at the chart from a technical/chart pattern perspective. So here we go:
Recap:
- As you know, I was bullish with a TP of 421, which was the mathematically calculated top of range and bullish break for the week. We surpassed that so kudos to those who were long to this point! Thus SPY has affirmed a bullish break running up to about 424 today.
- If you followed my QQQ idea, you know I was bullish up to 330 TP. This was my mathematically calculated TP and we reached it today and immediately rejected back down.
- My trade today was short on SPY after rejection of 424 (for a day trade not a swing trade) and also some TSLA plays today (which is unfortunately likely going down more unfortunately, just FYI).
So is it a short?
Hmmmm! Good question. Everyone seems to want to short this now. But is it actually time?
- Well, from a technical perspective SPY is pretty over-extended, but one thing I have painfully learned in my, albeit short, 3 + years of trading is that over-extension ALONE is NOT a sufficient reason to short a stock. So what else do we have going on?
- Some news is going to be released tomorrow at 10 (Consumer sentiment). This does tend to have a small impact on the market and I do expect consumer sentiment to be less than optimistic so this is something to be weary of.
- The big names such as AMZN are ready to have some selling going on. TSLA included but I hate including TSLA because its no longer included on the S&P. All (except TSLA) are running hot on most major TF but refer to my first anecdote about shorting on over-extension alone).
- Running some projections into next week (I know, I said no analysis was run but I have run some out of curiosity, but please take this with a grain of salt because the data is insufficient without complete Friday data to run the analysis) puts a high range for next week around 429 (actually after today its around 430).
- There is a descending trend line above SPY which roughly correlates also with the 430 range.
- Futures is looking slightly heavy. It seems more like forced bullishness and more like a fear of shorting/selling than full fledge bullishness.
- Futures has a haphazard pipe ish top on the 4 hour chart (mind you pipe tops traditionally are viewed on the weekly, but I tend to bend the rules for chart patterns a bit when I have math to back it). See chart:
- Lastly, Friday's (aside from Friday's leading into a long weekend) are traditionally bearish. There are exceptions to this rule, but they tend to be bearish more frequently than not.
So is it actually a short?
-Maybe! I think shorting for pullback if you are a day trader or even swing trader is not unreasonable and my likely play tomorrow.
- But I can really go one step further and tell you some probabilities here using ES. Because ES opened at 1800 and I do have a stats indicator for it, I can tell you what you wanna see if you wanna short this so let's get into that:
If ES! Futures breaks past 4236, further bullishness is confirmed and I would wait for it to test 4253 before entering any short position for a swing or for intra-day pullback.
I am looking for short pullback today and my immediate TP for this pullback on futures is 4187. However, if ES does break past 4236 then this will no longer be my TP as the probability of reaching it is incredibly low. Right now, the probability of us reaching 4187 is fairly high based on the immediate PA I am seeing in futures. This is because futures has already made contact with the first bearish target (underlined in yellow) and has failed to touch any of the statistically calculated bullish targets. So let's see what happens!
Otherwise, for more longer term TP I will post that information after I have run more of analysis over the weekend.
That's it for now!
As always, take care, trade safe and leave your comments/questions and critiques below!
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