SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUSTPenjualan
SPY Found Support, However Still Bearish in Short Term
Diupdate
SPY has temporarily found support, however all macro news has driven investor sentiment towards a "risk off" mood. Without significant positive news flow, SPY could be forming a cup and handle patter. If so, it should be dropping to test the 263 area.
Bullish Catalysts and Indicators:
1.) Support tested multiple times on all time frames 4hrs and below
2.) Potential positive China deal news. However it'd have to be a very good deal in order to push the market into a long term bullish trend, considering the backdrop of global growth slow down.
Bearish Catalysts and Indicators:
1.) No progress on trade deal
2.) Inflation picks up (High wage growth and low unemployment numbers) and central bank raises rates at least once this year
3.) Potential cup and handle pattern forming on SPY
4.) 2, 5, 10 yr yields continue to drop indicating more investors are pulling money from equities and piling into bonds
5.) Gold price surging indicating investors are seeking safe havens
Still bullish on Gold and bearish on SPY in the short term. Medium and Long Term still needs to be determined based on macro developments.
Bullish Catalysts and Indicators:
1.) Support tested multiple times on all time frames 4hrs and below
2.) Potential positive China deal news. However it'd have to be a very good deal in order to push the market into a long term bullish trend, considering the backdrop of global growth slow down.
Bearish Catalysts and Indicators:
1.) No progress on trade deal
2.) Inflation picks up (High wage growth and low unemployment numbers) and central bank raises rates at least once this year
3.) Potential cup and handle pattern forming on SPY
4.) 2, 5, 10 yr yields continue to drop indicating more investors are pulling money from equities and piling into bonds
5.) Gold price surging indicating investors are seeking safe havens
Still bullish on Gold and bearish on SPY in the short term. Medium and Long Term still needs to be determined based on macro developments.
Catatan
More Bearish Signals:1.) ECB having to pump out another wave of cheap debt based on their softer growth projections
2.) SPY has had a intense run-up so far this year, not crazy to think it might want to test the previous lows around 263 for a fourth time
3.) Short term EMA(9,20,50) point towards strong bearish momentum
Catatan
Slowing growth in China is also a concern, and no sign that the market thinks the stimulus China is rolling out will be a quick solution
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