SPY: Is anyone really 100% sure where we're going?

Since the break above the $262 level around early April, the options volume for those dated end of April into May shows a put-to-call ratio ranging from about 1.11 up to 7! The April 27 options expiration actually has more call volume with a ratio of 0.86. You can find this info on Opricot.

I have been in CALLS until last Thursday when I finally capitulated to all the SPY short ideas and TAs and bought 5/1 puts. The drop today was definitely a relief, since I've lost big before shorting SPY during that big bull run up to January 2020.

The short interest has been huge on SPY for a few weeks now. It's clear that people are pulling their hair out while saying "No way this should be this high!" (see r/WSB). FWIW, predicting SPY now is speculative at best. Despite the consistently bad news over the last two weeks, SPY has gone up nearly 10% at one point.

The RSI has been diverging, but the accumulation is still increasing. Volume is low, and the buying rate is not that strong. If I were to guess (and it really is a guess at this point), we may see a retest of $262 before moving further up or down.