SPY- Be a Wolf, not a Sheep.
Diupdate
We are aggressively approaching our 200 week moving averages. Throughout this bear market / crash I will be watching very closely certain key levels to close trades out and to allow the price to firm up and then re-enter shorts after whatever bounce has occurred. There is no way to know for sure that a bounce will happen at any given level but whenever you have good confluences coming together a disciplined trader will have a plan to exit at those levels given that the volume characteristics at that point in time confirm your hypothesis. Using volume is a little tricky sometimes. But I boil it down to looking for Large spikes in volume (that were not news driven or during the market closing or opening.) A larger than normal volume, while the price is going down, would signal that the price is trying to put in a local bottom if the price is moving up and produces a large volume bar then a local top.
I have my confluence of supports coming in at 233.25 it could overshoot that slightly, especially with the very heavy sell pressure and then get supported up for a bounce. Our moving averages could get pierced slightly and then price still move up. The point is that sometimes there are specific levels that you want to have razor accuracy and execute orders on a breakout as we did at 262.5 for our "Big Short" Clear level, low risk trade with easily manageable risk. The reason we could buy that one off of the 3-minute chart as it was breaking down was that we had a very clear structure that had been tested 5 times already and we were waiting for that final breakthrough (as the more a trendline is tested the weaker it becomes).
How will I know that we are not going to bounce or even slow down at this confluence... If we never get a substantial volume that shows there are buyers trying to enter in with force.
I am hoping for a bounce for everyone's sake that could not have gotten out of the market earlier, but now feel that price has gone down too far that they will be throwing away all of 2 years gains. I hope they realize that they could very quickly throw away 10 years worth of gains if they cannot get over losing some on their account. Managing your portfolios correctly right now and for this next year will be 1000X more important than choosing which mutual funds or ETFs to hold in a bull cycle. You must be nimble and you must be willing to pull the trigger and take a loss. You might even want to recapture the losses you've incurred by shorting the market. I have not been interested in stocks until I saw the potential crash coming back in August, with the very enticing monthly bearish divergences. Before that, I learned a very hard but clear lesson about market cycles while trading BTC this last year. Do not trade against the trend/market cycle. Become one with the institutions. If the sheeple people are all thinking one thing do the opposite. If the news is telling you something, then your being manipulated to react.
In this chart we can see that we had measured moves (Yellow Dotted Line) from the top of the peak down to the bootom of the bear flag. We copied that same line down to get a target price from that structre in the 230's. We have a little bit of supportive price action on the left side of the chart and I have drawn in a support line at 240 and 230. The 200 EMA and MA weeklys are coming in at around those same areas respectivly. No bounce is guarenteed but the indgredents are here for it to happen if buyers decide to make it happen. A bounce could trick some people and I am sure the news will tout that we are recovering the worst is behind us. Please, think twice before beliving that one when you hear it. IMO, It will simply be the last place to get out at a decent place or get accounts set up and ready for shorting at those tops from any bounce. We will be looking of the bounce to test some Moving averages and key resistance levels for establish that short (or for some exit to cash.) Ill be posting every step of the way on this glorious journey to the depths of opportunity.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advise this is intended for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk, I am not a financial advisor and am not registered with any agency and all assets have maximum loss potential.
I have my confluence of supports coming in at 233.25 it could overshoot that slightly, especially with the very heavy sell pressure and then get supported up for a bounce. Our moving averages could get pierced slightly and then price still move up. The point is that sometimes there are specific levels that you want to have razor accuracy and execute orders on a breakout as we did at 262.5 for our "Big Short" Clear level, low risk trade with easily manageable risk. The reason we could buy that one off of the 3-minute chart as it was breaking down was that we had a very clear structure that had been tested 5 times already and we were waiting for that final breakthrough (as the more a trendline is tested the weaker it becomes).
How will I know that we are not going to bounce or even slow down at this confluence... If we never get a substantial volume that shows there are buyers trying to enter in with force.
I am hoping for a bounce for everyone's sake that could not have gotten out of the market earlier, but now feel that price has gone down too far that they will be throwing away all of 2 years gains. I hope they realize that they could very quickly throw away 10 years worth of gains if they cannot get over losing some on their account. Managing your portfolios correctly right now and for this next year will be 1000X more important than choosing which mutual funds or ETFs to hold in a bull cycle. You must be nimble and you must be willing to pull the trigger and take a loss. You might even want to recapture the losses you've incurred by shorting the market. I have not been interested in stocks until I saw the potential crash coming back in August, with the very enticing monthly bearish divergences. Before that, I learned a very hard but clear lesson about market cycles while trading BTC this last year. Do not trade against the trend/market cycle. Become one with the institutions. If the sheeple people are all thinking one thing do the opposite. If the news is telling you something, then your being manipulated to react.
In this chart we can see that we had measured moves (Yellow Dotted Line) from the top of the peak down to the bootom of the bear flag. We copied that same line down to get a target price from that structre in the 230's. We have a little bit of supportive price action on the left side of the chart and I have drawn in a support line at 240 and 230. The 200 EMA and MA weeklys are coming in at around those same areas respectivly. No bounce is guarenteed but the indgredents are here for it to happen if buyers decide to make it happen. A bounce could trick some people and I am sure the news will tout that we are recovering the worst is behind us. Please, think twice before beliving that one when you hear it. IMO, It will simply be the last place to get out at a decent place or get accounts set up and ready for shorting at those tops from any bounce. We will be looking of the bounce to test some Moving averages and key resistance levels for establish that short (or for some exit to cash.) Ill be posting every step of the way on this glorious journey to the depths of opportunity.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advise this is intended for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk, I am not a financial advisor and am not registered with any agency and all assets have maximum loss potential.
Catatan
Wanted to mention not to pay much attention to the Stochastic RSI. They are useful in specific cases like consolidations, but when the market is impulsively moving (trending) then they should not be relied upon as you would in a normal bull or sideways market cycle. (Don't expect oversold Stochastics to be supported much in a bear market crash)Catatan
Catatan
Charts have 2 different way to view them. One is in a linear format and the other is logarithmic. Typically I prefer to use logarithmic to create my trendlines and do my analysis. As there will also be people viewing and trading off of a linear chart I have changed the layout to linear In these Two attached Chart Pics (above and below). Interestingly, these lines are coming in right where I was expecting a bounce from my log chart analysis. There is good confluence here too in the 200 MA in red as it comes up with the same slope as the yellow support and in the same approximate area. These findings reinforce my bias of a slowdown/bounce at this 230 area. This in total gives us quadruple confluences for near-term support. 1. 200 MA & 200 EMA2. Linear Chart long term Support and resistance lines (yellow)
3. Measured move from the bear flag
4. Horizontal support 240 & 230(from the left side of chart consolidations)
Catatan
*The New Linear chart lines are in Yellow.
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