SPY can't get it up...
Just a quick pre-weekend analysis and update about the SPY.
Previously, it looked like the SPY was about to do a technial bounce, but the week panned out to be more fear overwhelming than anything else. The MACD is not divergent, so any bounce can be expected to be shallow; just like Wednesday's bounce, and not following through the next day. It appears a little oversold, and at support cross-roads. With the bearish Buy Setup in force indicating a bearish primary trend, a bounce of some sort is still in the cards. So we play the bull and bear case scenario again.
(Slight) Bull case sees a mild rally to about 380 (most likely, as it meets a set of resistances) or perhaps stretch to 390, where should start to stall and turn down again. The TD Seq Sell Setup should start with a TD Flip, then proceed to build but not likely to change the primary trend by exceeding 403. In fact, it might even truncate. If this scenario happens, it would take us to almost mid-October, and the rest of October might be pretty bearish to reach the projected downside target(s), 305 and 330, which have been readjusted for time.
The bear case here is a consolidation around 370 and then most of October fall off the cliff type of bear market to 350, then to 330.
The slight bull case appears more probable at this point with a favourable 70/30 skew. But whichever way, it is in the middle of a bear trend and it is not quite over.
For now, I'd be watching the next week or two to see how this pans out...
PS. So far, the projected lines (based on the symmetrical HH and LL pattern) is still robust and uncanny, which was posted on Aug 3.
Previously, it looked like the SPY was about to do a technial bounce, but the week panned out to be more fear overwhelming than anything else. The MACD is not divergent, so any bounce can be expected to be shallow; just like Wednesday's bounce, and not following through the next day. It appears a little oversold, and at support cross-roads. With the bearish Buy Setup in force indicating a bearish primary trend, a bounce of some sort is still in the cards. So we play the bull and bear case scenario again.
(Slight) Bull case sees a mild rally to about 380 (most likely, as it meets a set of resistances) or perhaps stretch to 390, where should start to stall and turn down again. The TD Seq Sell Setup should start with a TD Flip, then proceed to build but not likely to change the primary trend by exceeding 403. In fact, it might even truncate. If this scenario happens, it would take us to almost mid-October, and the rest of October might be pretty bearish to reach the projected downside target(s), 305 and 330, which have been readjusted for time.
The bear case here is a consolidation around 370 and then most of October fall off the cliff type of bear market to 350, then to 330.
The slight bull case appears more probable at this point with a favourable 70/30 skew. But whichever way, it is in the middle of a bear trend and it is not quite over.
For now, I'd be watching the next week or two to see how this pans out...
PS. So far, the projected lines (based on the symmetrical HH and LL pattern) is still robust and uncanny, which was posted on Aug 3.
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