New SPY Cycle Patterns for next week

Here are the new cycle patterns for next week and beyond.

Let's see how the market react to the Excess Phase Peak Phase 3 support (June lows). Failure of this pattern at this point could prompt a big move higher.

9-23: Momentum Rally
9-24: Rare – Major Reversal
9-25: N/A
9-26: Breakdown
9-27: Harami/Inside
9-28: CRUSH
9-29: GAP Potential
9-30: Top Resistance
10-1: Consolidation
10-2: Temporary Bottom
10-3: Gap Reversal
10-4: Breakdown
10-5: BreakAway
10-6: Rally
10-7: Carryover
10-8: Bottom
10-9: N/A
10-10: N/A
10-11: Inside/Breakaway
10-12: Harami/Inside
10-13: CRUSH
10-14: Gap Potential
10-15: Gap Reversal
10-16: Breakdown
10-17: BreakAway
10-18: Carryover
10-19: Temporary Bottom
10-20: Top/Reisistance
10-21: Consolidation
10-22: CRUSH
10-23: Gap Potential
10-24: Gap22 Potential
10-25: N/A
10-26: Breakdown
10-27: Harami/Inside
10-28: CRUSH
10-29: GAP Potential
10-30: Top/Resistance
10-31: Consolidation
11-1: Bottom
11-2: UP/Down/Up
11-3: Base/Rally
11-4: BreakAway
11-5: Carryover

WARNING:
There are TWO warning signals on the Short-Term cycle modeling system we need to pay attention to. These may become bigger issues for traders if they compound with other factors.

9-1-2022: TOP (Potential Price PEAK)
9-4-2022: Temporary Bottom10
9-10-2022: Rally11 (Bullish)
9-13-2022: TOP (Potential Price PEAK)
9-23-2022: Momentum Rally

As I stated earlier, I see the easiest path for the US markets to take as staying within one of the THREE Pennant/Flag patterns I highlighted in the charts (above). This means we are likely to see a moderate Christmas rally phase which may trend more sideways than upward.

Last week’s major cycle research trigger:

My cycle research suggests the following is HIGHLY LIKELY.

_ 1999 : Major Top (Start of DOT COM event)
_ 2003 : Bottom/Disruption
_ 2006.3 : Peak/Top/Extended Rally Phase (Start of GFC event)
_ 2010 : Major Bottom
_ 2013.7 : Strengthening Price Trends
_ 2019.5 : Disruption (COVID)
_ 2022.5 : Peak/Top/Extended Rally Phase (?? Crisis Event: Perfect Storm Phase 1)
_ 2027 : Peak/Top/Extended Rally Phase (?? Crisis Event: Perfect Storm Phase 2)


There will be some great opportunities for 3% to 5%+ swings in the markets going forward – but I don’t see many great opportunities to get involved in any new long-term positions yet. Stay very liquid at the moment (mostly in CASH). We’ll see how things progress towards the holidays and into early 2023.