SPY Quarterly Analysis
On SPY’s 3M chart, SPY has closed Q1 with a large bullish candle. The current closing 3M candle is accompanied by falling volume. It is also touching the upper Bollinger band, in confluence with a 3rd touch of an uptrend resistance zone. Note that the RSI is also overbought again with a bearish divergence. Heading into Q2, there's been some shaky economic indicators inn addition to mega cap stocks (such as the mag 7) showing some cooling off. I would watch for a pullback candle to form or possible dojo (indecision) candle to form at this level over the next 3 months. I would also watching for an initial move above the current 3M candle at ($523.07) to the 127.2% FIB extension level to start watching for trend changes, as this FIB level is one of the profit taking levels within the FIB extension.
On SPY’s 1M chart, price action and confluence factors are similar to the 3M chart with the RSI overbought, a candle closed outside of upper Bollinger band, a slight bearish divergence, and the STOCH starting to curl downward. If April’s candle pushes higher, the levels to watch for targets are round numbers like $525, $530, $535, and $540. NOTE that although I’ve named a few bearish signals, the current trend is strongly bullish with the previous 5 monthly candles all forming higher highs and higher lows. In order for a trend change to occur on the 1M chart, I need to see the current trend line that is drawn connecting the lows of the previous 5 monthly candles, break down with 2 consecutive lower low candles.
On SPY’s 1W chart, The most recent weekly candle(March 25th) was a weaker bullish candle. The previous 3 weekly candles were accompanied by consecutive falling volume. The 1W chart also shows an overbought RSI in alignment with the higher time frames. The current uptrend on the 1W chart is also still holding strong. There are 2 smaller uptrend supports to be broken on this timeframe before assuming shorts. For now, buys are still in order unless the first 2 weeks of Q2 are bearish and form strong lower lows after one another. If this happened it would create that breakdown of the current smaller trend line.
On SPY’s 1D chart. Price is showing some slowing with sideways movement and strong rejection of the last pivot at $524.11. Again, Unless there is some breakdown of the current smaller trend and a change in structure to the downside creating by a break below the current pivot up(higher low) at $518.40, then every drop in price should be treated as a buy opportunity. For now, the current daily candle could be the beginning of a double top to begin a pullback. A strong candle close above $524.60 will confirm a continuation above.
On SPY’s 4h chart, I am currently receiving 2 Jeanius sell signals, further signifying a possible pullback in price going into the 1st week of April. If the market doesn’t GAP, I will be looking for a trend change on the 5min chart for a quick trade to the most recent support and higher low pivot that took place within in the 4h structure. I will wait for the next 1h/4h buy signal from Jeanius to go long for a continuation in structure.. For now I am treating price as if it is ranging until the recent high or low is broken.
On SPY’s 1M chart, price action and confluence factors are similar to the 3M chart with the RSI overbought, a candle closed outside of upper Bollinger band, a slight bearish divergence, and the STOCH starting to curl downward. If April’s candle pushes higher, the levels to watch for targets are round numbers like $525, $530, $535, and $540. NOTE that although I’ve named a few bearish signals, the current trend is strongly bullish with the previous 5 monthly candles all forming higher highs and higher lows. In order for a trend change to occur on the 1M chart, I need to see the current trend line that is drawn connecting the lows of the previous 5 monthly candles, break down with 2 consecutive lower low candles.
On SPY’s 1W chart, The most recent weekly candle(March 25th) was a weaker bullish candle. The previous 3 weekly candles were accompanied by consecutive falling volume. The 1W chart also shows an overbought RSI in alignment with the higher time frames. The current uptrend on the 1W chart is also still holding strong. There are 2 smaller uptrend supports to be broken on this timeframe before assuming shorts. For now, buys are still in order unless the first 2 weeks of Q2 are bearish and form strong lower lows after one another. If this happened it would create that breakdown of the current smaller trend line.
On SPY’s 1D chart. Price is showing some slowing with sideways movement and strong rejection of the last pivot at $524.11. Again, Unless there is some breakdown of the current smaller trend and a change in structure to the downside creating by a break below the current pivot up(higher low) at $518.40, then every drop in price should be treated as a buy opportunity. For now, the current daily candle could be the beginning of a double top to begin a pullback. A strong candle close above $524.60 will confirm a continuation above.
On SPY’s 4h chart, I am currently receiving 2 Jeanius sell signals, further signifying a possible pullback in price going into the 1st week of April. If the market doesn’t GAP, I will be looking for a trend change on the 5min chart for a quick trade to the most recent support and higher low pivot that took place within in the 4h structure. I will wait for the next 1h/4h buy signal from Jeanius to go long for a continuation in structure.. For now I am treating price as if it is ranging until the recent high or low is broken.
Dennis Butler Jr.
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