SPY short thoughts, technicals & psychology
I think we see accelerated selling pressure on the markets over the next few weeks. Technicals aside, market psychology has to be bearish:
1) Buffet still sitting on close to $140 Billion in cash.
2) The market bounce was all fed induced, short covering, hedge funds & traders day & swing trading, bots doing their thing.
3) Long term we will be fine, short term we will be volatile as the markets need to digest and readjust how the economy will resume in the short-medium term. A lot of big money magnets ( airlines, hotels, travel, leisure, sporting events, restaurants, concerts, plays etc) won't return to pre-covid for a while and that will suck a lot of money out of the economy. I expect jobless claims to remain low even after we open back up with sort of a delayed re-adjustment as a lot of businesses will be much slower, their will be new layoffs.
4)TARIFFS / CHINA / TRUMP
5) If we have a down open tomorrow I expect selling pressure to mount and the market to see accelerated selling into options x. A huge amount of open interest accumulating in "out of the money" SPY puts.
PLS comment with thoughts and feedback.
1) Buffet still sitting on close to $140 Billion in cash.
2) The market bounce was all fed induced, short covering, hedge funds & traders day & swing trading, bots doing their thing.
3) Long term we will be fine, short term we will be volatile as the markets need to digest and readjust how the economy will resume in the short-medium term. A lot of big money magnets ( airlines, hotels, travel, leisure, sporting events, restaurants, concerts, plays etc) won't return to pre-covid for a while and that will suck a lot of money out of the economy. I expect jobless claims to remain low even after we open back up with sort of a delayed re-adjustment as a lot of businesses will be much slower, their will be new layoffs.
4)TARIFFS / CHINA / TRUMP
5) If we have a down open tomorrow I expect selling pressure to mount and the market to see accelerated selling into options x. A huge amount of open interest accumulating in "out of the money" SPY puts.
PLS comment with thoughts and feedback.
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