SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
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SPY Outlook โ€“ Key Levels & Probabilities

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SPY Outlook โ€“ Key Levels & Probabilities

SPY is sitting on a rising trendline and testing the 647 zone near the .618 retracement. Market structure shows a tug-of-war between bulls holding trend support and sellers guarding supply overhead.

๐Ÿ”‘ Levels to Watch

Support: 645โ€“643 (trendline + Fib cluster), deeper at 639.3

Resistance: 651โ€“653 supply zone, breakout target 658 (Fib extension)

Liquidity Pools: 630โ€“628 if support fails

๐Ÿ“Š Probabilities

Bullish Case (60%) โ†’ Hold above 643 โ†’ upside push into 652โ€“658

Bearish Case (40%) โ†’ Break below 643 โ†’ drop toward 639, possibly 630โ€“628

๐ŸŽฏ Trade Map

Long setup: Enter near 645โ€“643, stop below 641, targets 652 โ†’ 658

Short setup: Fade rejection at 652โ€“653, stop above 654, target 639

โšกBias remains bullish while above 643. A clean break below flips the script bearish.
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