The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
Diupdate
After trading essentially sideways overnight, futures are seeing some pressure this morning on a weak Jobless Claims print. Initial Claims came in at 853k vs 720k exp. (the largest weekly rise since March), with Continuing Claims rising for the first time since the crash, to 5.76MM vs a prior print of 5.53MM. CPI came in hotter than expected at 0.2% vs 0.1% exp. no big surprise there. The silver lining in the jobs print was the total number of Americans on some form of unemployment is now sitting below 20 Million. That's something I guess? This print isn't reflecting some of the latest lockdowns, so things are going to get worse into year end.
The FDA Panel is voting on Pfizer's new Vaccine, so I suspect a well timed headline may show up to save markets. But, absent a stimulus deal, and an improvement in the real economy, stocks could continue to face downward pressure as we approach EOY. A vaccine approval could also serve as a sell-the-news event, along with any "solution" to the heap of systemic problems facing markets. Clearly every rumour has already been bought, so imo markets are priced to perfection, and can only go down from here.
SPY appears poised to gap down to a 364 handle on the open, with the 100 period MA in play around 363.75. I'm keeping an eye on the gap fill from Dec 1st around 362 (just above the 21 day EMA), and the top of the megaphone around 358.50 for signs of support. Absent support at these levels, the bulls could be in real trouble, with a half a dozen gaps waiting to be filled from November's risk binge, and overnight gap parade, sitting just below us.
Stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and thanks for your time today guys! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
The FDA Panel is voting on Pfizer's new Vaccine, so I suspect a well timed headline may show up to save markets. But, absent a stimulus deal, and an improvement in the real economy, stocks could continue to face downward pressure as we approach EOY. A vaccine approval could also serve as a sell-the-news event, along with any "solution" to the heap of systemic problems facing markets. Clearly every rumour has already been bought, so imo markets are priced to perfection, and can only go down from here.
SPY appears poised to gap down to a 364 handle on the open, with the 100 period MA in play around 363.75. I'm keeping an eye on the gap fill from Dec 1st around 362 (just above the 21 day EMA), and the top of the megaphone around 358.50 for signs of support. Absent support at these levels, the bulls could be in real trouble, with a half a dozen gaps waiting to be filled from November's risk binge, and overnight gap parade, sitting just below us.
Stay tuned for live updates throughout the day, and thanks for your time today guys! If you enjoyed today's analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.
Catatan
Vix back to a 23 handle this morning, and looking ripe for a breakout... Catatan
Good view of the open on the hourly... Catatan
SPY RSI went from a 66 handle to a 31 handle on the hourly in just 2 days. Still elevated around 59 on the daily, 63 on the weekly, and 66 on the monthly. I don't usually talk about the quarterly period, but we're at an RSI of 70.60. Ouch...Catatan
Buy the dippers are out in full force to help create some liquidity for the larger traders to get out... Catatan
Let's see if they go for the gap fill around 366.89...Catatan
Gap filled... Catatan
Bears appear to have built a wall of sell orders, and the bulls are stuck in yesterday's closing range... Catatan
Let's see if the bulls can break through...Catatan
If they do, they'll be looking to retest the 50 period MA on the hourly at 368. If they fail, we'll be back at the opening low of 364.44 in the blink of an eye...Catatan
Clear rejection once again at the top of the range/sell wall around 367.50, and the bulls have also lost the 50 period MA on the 5 minute... Catatan
6th time's the charm? Catatan
Powell sitting behind his desk with Peter Strzok face just relentlessly hitting Crtl + P...Catatan
Vix is taking it on the chin as the bears catch their breath. We're now back to a 21 handle...
Catatan
6th rejection folks. This is a powerful wall of sell orders. Will the bulls take a hint, or are they so deep pocketed, they'll just buy up all the supply? Catatan
Here we go... Catatan
Adjusted the range slightly, and it looks like we've got ourselves a nice lil' bear flag... Catatan
Looking at global markets, we're essentially flat across the board today, with the exception of Brazil, Hungary, South Korea, and Russia. Vix is magically back to flat on the day, which looks like a perfect demonstration of market manipulation to me. At the end of the day, it's all about controlling volatility, and price action is just collateral damage. Vix does look awfully cheap, though, so let's see what happens next...Catatan
The bulls would have you believe we're seeing support at this level. Here's a good view of the megaphone, and where we currently are on the weekly timeframe... Catatan
Monthly... Catatan
Very impressive range today. Relentless buying at the bottom of the range, and relentless selling at the top. All I can say is lol. Participation must be through the roof with this level of price discovery... Catatan
The Put/Call ratio is still on it's trip back from Pluto. But, sitting notably off low's, and looking ripe for a breakout back to the baseline... Catatan
Bears testing the waters below the range with an initial probe. Let's see how the bulls respond... Catatan
Let's see if polarity principle does it's job today... Catatan
Bulls fighting back and retesting the 50 period and 100 period MA's on the 5 minute... Catatan
Volume is building here in the final 30 minutes of trade. The bulls are stealing back most of the day's losses seemingly with ease. Walking through intraday resistance levels as if they're not there. Let's see if the bears have anything left in the tank as we approach the close... Catatan
5 mins of trade left in the day. Bulls have been putting on quite the show since 2:30PM. Relentless buying to recapture most of the day's losses, but will the bears have the final say?Catatan
Not a lot of action into the close but we definitely saw some notable weakness in the final minutes of trade. The Majors rebounded from a relatively grim morning session, to end the day around yesterday's close. The bulls successfully pushed us back into the range, and I suspect we may see another overnight pump to get us out of trouble. Let's see how tomorrow shapes up after today's stalemate. I hope you guys enjoyed today's analysis. I appreciate you guys, cheers!
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