SPX 2014/2015 Analog February 2023

Oleh Neon

Diupdate

This seems like the temporary bullish pain trade that will frustrate bulls and bears

Catatan

JPo needs to allow that on March 22

Catatan

Liquidity wave helped bulls from the most dramatic bear scenario to this one

Catatan

So apparently and in fact, market moved to the alternative scenario which is softer

Catatan

Since Dec high, SPX is up massive..1.1%. Wow

Catatan

The low that SPX made on May 4, 2023 corresponds to the low SPX made on May 14, 2020 which was the start of the blow off into early June 2020, so then to keep time proportions this should go into end of month

Catatan

Starting the period for a more important high and potential reversal. Now, eventually at some point unknown this year, it is likely that 4340 to 4390 range will be attacked.

Catatan

Early June to late July/early Aug appears to be the higher volatility window

Catatan

After 5 months, small caps/mid caps/SPX equal weight are negative for the year. Everyone is in AI

Catatan

When I think that I thought about this pattern in Feb and now it is June already and has been playing so well. The real hint was the GBPSEK for this to materialise

Catatan

Likely expanding ending diagonal at the lower degree forming so a bit of a blow off

Neon

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