Finishing Off a Leading Diagonal
Diupdate
This is a rough estimate projection of what I'm expecting in the coming weeks for the market. I'll post a more detailed analysis once wave 4 is confirmed. Here is the summary (this is not an EWT analysis, so you;ll have to take my word on it for this count - rather, its a rough forecast for what to expect that uses an EWC to simplify my pivot references):
- Expecting current bounce off the last weeks low to continue slightly higher until around 4/9-4/10 (next Tues-Wed). Should reverse around 5239-5282.
- After that we will get one more pullback that will last through the end of next week (i.e. more downside through 4/12). This pullback will most likely form a higher low around 5163, but it could make one more lower low: as long as it does not extend below 5112 the ending diagonal structure will still be valid.
** The above will complete wave 4 of the ending diagonal, what will follow is a final wave to new highs by the end of April 2024 (wave 5 of the ending diag). My target range for the final 5 of larger degree C of larger degree (5) is 5300-5400.. That will be the top (this will be a major top!!, meaning that shareholders should be distributing here, not buying more).
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How I'm playing this (not financial advice):
- Waiting until confirmation of wave 4 of ending diagonal to enter SPY May expiry, 520.00 calls
- I'll sell half at SPY 530 and unload the remaining if it makes it to 535 by end of Apr.
- After I exit long I will load the boat with puts 3-5 months out because the downside will be gruesome.
Key points:
- don't short yet
- be patient to enter long
- this is a "heads up," wait for my more detailed post once I get confimation
#Pigs git slaaughtered
- Expecting current bounce off the last weeks low to continue slightly higher until around 4/9-4/10 (next Tues-Wed). Should reverse around 5239-5282.
- After that we will get one more pullback that will last through the end of next week (i.e. more downside through 4/12). This pullback will most likely form a higher low around 5163, but it could make one more lower low: as long as it does not extend below 5112 the ending diagonal structure will still be valid.
** The above will complete wave 4 of the ending diagonal, what will follow is a final wave to new highs by the end of April 2024 (wave 5 of the ending diag). My target range for the final 5 of larger degree C of larger degree (5) is 5300-5400.. That will be the top (this will be a major top!!, meaning that shareholders should be distributing here, not buying more).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
How I'm playing this (not financial advice):
- Waiting until confirmation of wave 4 of ending diagonal to enter SPY May expiry, 520.00 calls
- I'll sell half at SPY 530 and unload the remaining if it makes it to 535 by end of Apr.
- After I exit long I will load the boat with puts 3-5 months out because the downside will be gruesome.
Key points:
- don't short yet
- be patient to enter long
- this is a "heads up," wait for my more detailed post once I get confimation
#Pigs git slaaughtered
Catatan
So... Title was supposed to say "Ending Diagonal" - Not leading diag.. Made it clear in my post though.So far this is playing out as expected. It doesn't have to make it to 5239-5282, if it drops back below 5202 then it will drop further to 5144-5163. Patience is key here to get confirmation to enter long toward the end of the week.. No play yet unless you scalp but I'm more interested in the larger up-move coming that we can get for a better discount.
Catatan
Starting to leg in to SPY calls. Everything falling into place with expected price action.Catatan
adding calls here - following my expected path nearly exactlyCould get one final shakeout around 2pm with meeting minutes and then begin rally into close (or with gap up tomorrow morning)
Catatan
We will follow my forecast arrow UP from here. Watch 5260 for resistance. It could run to 5260, then pullback to form a higher low before continuing higher to 5300s.Catatan
Still bullish here, since the corrective wave just extended longer/further than expected not much has changed. However, its not as likely that we will see a higher high directly from here - so new target = 5225. If we can break above 5225 then it opens the door for continuation to 5300+ (as expected initially).On the downside, we need to keep 5051 as support it it runs the risk of further drop to low 4900s. It won't crash directly from here, so the only play I see currently is accumulating May expiration SPY calls to catch the bounce.
For longs, we want to regain 5100 today or tomorrow (4/17) to get confirmation bounce is underway.
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