Indeks S&P 500Diupdate SPX / SPY - The Unsinkable Ship with Fed Repo's?
THIS IS A NEUTRAL POST. NO POSITION IS ENTERED YET
I am overall bearish on SPX/SPY.
But with new information it appears the unnatural market forces cannot be overtaken at this time.
As long as we see the Fed Repo's continuing, SPY will continue to go up.
Facts / News
From 12/13/2019 to 1/14/2020 the Federal Reserve is putting roughly $500 Billion through repo's.
When the Fed recently did repo's "$175 billion expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet to $4.07 trillion, representing growth of 4.5% since the operations began. During that time, the S&P 500 has risen just shy of 4%." cnbc.com/2019/11/07/the-feds-monetary-juice-has-tied-directly-to-the-rise-in-stocks.html
So if $175 Billion got an SPY raise of 4%....then $500 Billion should easily be 10% on SPY. CNBC article above also states SPY company earnings are dropping while SPY goes up. Confused?
Fed Total Money printing - (around 2mins30secs into video, but I recommend watching whole video) 12mins total length from today 12/16/2019
youtube.com/watch?v=5eWga9YzLRE
The video above suggests that we are in a bubble, and Fed and Euro Central Banks (ECB) MUST continue printing to keep bubble growing.
Current Fed Repo Details thru January 14, 2020
newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details
My opinion
My opinion is this SPY uptrend from money printing can only be derailed by catastrophe. So we must either get on board going up, or wait for things to derail.
This liquidity is DIRECTLY CORRELATED to market price increases.
So it does not matter that we are overpriced, high RSI, or any other fundamentals.
The high flow of liquidity from the Fed overtakes all the "normal factors" we consider as fundamentals. This is definition of a bubble. investopedia.com/terms/b/bubble.asp
I am overall bearish on SPX/SPY.
But with new information it appears the unnatural market forces cannot be overtaken at this time.
As long as we see the Fed Repo's continuing, SPY will continue to go up.
Facts / News
From 12/13/2019 to 1/14/2020 the Federal Reserve is putting roughly $500 Billion through repo's.
When the Fed recently did repo's "$175 billion expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet to $4.07 trillion, representing growth of 4.5% since the operations began. During that time, the S&P 500 has risen just shy of 4%." cnbc.com/2019/11/07/the-feds-monetary-juice-has-tied-directly-to-the-rise-in-stocks.html
So if $175 Billion got an SPY raise of 4%....then $500 Billion should easily be 10% on SPY. CNBC article above also states SPY company earnings are dropping while SPY goes up. Confused?
Fed Total Money printing - (around 2mins30secs into video, but I recommend watching whole video) 12mins total length from today 12/16/2019
youtube.com/watch?v=5eWga9YzLRE
The video above suggests that we are in a bubble, and Fed and Euro Central Banks (ECB) MUST continue printing to keep bubble growing.
Current Fed Repo Details thru January 14, 2020
newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details
My opinion
My opinion is this SPY uptrend from money printing can only be derailed by catastrophe. So we must either get on board going up, or wait for things to derail.
This liquidity is DIRECTLY CORRELATED to market price increases.
So it does not matter that we are overpriced, high RSI, or any other fundamentals.
The high flow of liquidity from the Fed overtakes all the "normal factors" we consider as fundamentals. This is definition of a bubble. investopedia.com/terms/b/bubble.asp
Catatan
youtube.com/watch?v=7prnY2FOxnsShort clip (9min) from "Margin Call" when the bankers find out they have more leverage on assets which are depreciating, than their bank is worth. Current times will soon be just like 2007. They panic sell everything.
Stars - Kevin Spacey, Jeremy Irons, Demi Moore, and more.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.