FOMC prep, the chop continues - SPX

31 Jan 2023

No sell off today is another warning that we may have more chop tomorrow and in the coming week. Looking at the action today makes me think we're in a B of 4 and the C will be with the FOMC announcement. However because it's probably a 4th wave, chances are we find support at either 3980ish or 3950 - the important MA's are there on the daily charts. The RSI is also hinting at a buyable dip after tomorrow. The bear fatigue should be complete with one more high into 4130+ for wave 5 of C next week. One one hand I'd like this rally to be over, but on the other hand, the higher they go, the more explosive the move down will be for the C wave I see coming.

Good luck!

1 Feb 2023

Catatan

If there's no pullback today the count may be something like this. Either way, another high is an opportunity to add shorts in my case. Good luck!

1 Feb 2023

Catatan

PItchfork on ES has not been breached, so there's no guarantee we will go higher, of course with FOMC at 2pm and then Powell's speech at 2:30, expect the unexpected and don't rush in.

1 Feb 2023

Catatan

I've updated the trendline so it corresponds with the 18ma (red line) - that's the area bears want to see breakdown and then backtested if we are going to start selling this market. As I said, if we sell and get to the 18ma and the 4hr rsi is exceptionally low, I expect another wave up.

1 Feb 2023

Catatan

if the market sells off with powell's speech, watch 397.5 on spy. I still think the chance of one more high is possible even if we sell that much. We also might just go straight up. I'll have to watch the rsi for clues. I'm out for the rest of today - good luck