SPX LT View Feb 2018
Diupdate
Interesting juncture
Catatan
So the potential lows are in 2450/2470 levels which is close to the August 2017 bottom from where the blow off beganCatatan
US GDP growth most likely slows down at latest 2Q18 for at least 2H, with tightening this should lead to 15/20% decline.Catatan
So far SPX is normalising to trend, essentially washing out the post Sep 2017 blow offCatatan
So market is truly sniffing out the slowdown in global growth with the US the last economy to slow down at latest 2Q18. Coupled with QT, one should have 2015/2016 outcome similarCatatan
Or 2011 similar as long as we continue on current path which is QT+ growth slowdown. US has a chance via another USD devaluation into summer but lets see. Interesting what Draghi will do as EU stocks should more or less go 15/20% down under this scenario.Catatan
Short term risk aversion rose sharplyCatatan
Working very well so far as paradoxically bullish positioning declines!!Catatan
Seems C&H forms on futuresCatatan
Becomes more and more like 2015/2016
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