A decision in SPX has to be due soon. For 4 months now it's barcoded at the same 1.61 general inflection zone.
From here I find we typically reject or we trade to the 2.20. Both of these would be a 8 -10% move - it's just a question of to which side.
SPX has started to shape up a lot like a break.
If the bear thesis is correct it needs to be evidenced by a big red monthly bar.
I'd estimate it has to be something in the range of about 8% and sometime March/April.
Should be fairly obvious. And we're getting to the levels where the break is close to being "Confirmed" (not that I rank the idea of confirmation too high, many of the worst trades ever were "confirmed").
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