I happen to believe that the market has topped out for the year, but the market will let me know soon enough if this assumption is correct. I also believe that the market is 1-3 days away from a bounce but that the bounce will fail long before SPX reaches the resistance level at the 1434 area.
The one thing that would change my mind would be a very strong one-day move with an even stronger, IBD type follow through rally day which would conclusively flip current market bias from bearish to bullish. Even so, I do not think we will put in a new closing high on SPX before the end of trading on the last session of 2012.
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