Bellwether for US recession, The Inverted Yield Curve v2
This serves as a supplement to my analysis:
Too much of a good thing v1 & v2 and
SHORT: BEAR pretending to be BULL?
The Inverted Yield Curve
To my base argument I now include data that show younger treasury bond yields are yielding more interest than older ones. This is known as the inverted yield curve.
While it might not seem like much at first glance, the inverted yield curve is actually a rare occurrence that can act as the bellwether for an economic recession.
Adding these data to my core argument:
The S&P 500 rallied by about 25% since bottoming on December 24, 2018 during the Q4 2018 financial market turmoil.
From the depths of despair, the market has climbed higher because the Federal Reserve , meeting this week, has stopped raising interest rates, and there may—or may not—be progress on trade.
It’s also very possible that the market was simply oversold in the low-liquidity month of December. But since the rally, pessimists have been warning that the S&P 500 will reverse course at any moment—just as they have through this entire bull market.
S&P 500 has yet to top its September high and many from TEAM BULL may not see a reason to sell. I can’t prove that this approach is wrong. However I do feel that the odds are favouring another major decline, and soon.
I am not implying the market will play out the same dismal way that my graph illustrates historically, but to think that stocks can’t retest the lows of last year (or go lower) would be naïve.
Too much of a good thing v1 & v2 and
SHORT: BEAR pretending to be BULL?
The Inverted Yield Curve
To my base argument I now include data that show younger treasury bond yields are yielding more interest than older ones. This is known as the inverted yield curve.
While it might not seem like much at first glance, the inverted yield curve is actually a rare occurrence that can act as the bellwether for an economic recession.
Adding these data to my core argument:
The S&P 500 rallied by about 25% since bottoming on December 24, 2018 during the Q4 2018 financial market turmoil.
From the depths of despair, the market has climbed higher because the Federal Reserve , meeting this week, has stopped raising interest rates, and there may—or may not—be progress on trade.
It’s also very possible that the market was simply oversold in the low-liquidity month of December. But since the rally, pessimists have been warning that the S&P 500 will reverse course at any moment—just as they have through this entire bull market.
S&P 500 has yet to top its September high and many from TEAM BULL may not see a reason to sell. I can’t prove that this approach is wrong. However I do feel that the odds are favouring another major decline, and soon.
I am not implying the market will play out the same dismal way that my graph illustrates historically, but to think that stocks can’t retest the lows of last year (or go lower) would be naïve.
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