Watch volatility for the next 2 weeks.
Today, the jobs report came in higher than expected.
This is a bad thing in the eyes of the FED!
Why?
Because Jerome Powell is trying lower employment numbers.
Strong Employment, Strong Economy.
Isn’t that a Good thing?
Not when inflation is this Sticky!
Jerome Powell is trying to put out the flames of a hot economy to bring down inflation.
For the Bear ——
The patient bear listened to warning signs that Jerome was going to be hawkish at Jackson Hole and was rewarded with a well timed short at the top of a Bear Market Rally.
The top of the Ichimoku Cloud was rejected on the 1day that resulted in a strong Bearish Island Reversal pattern now playing out.
After 4 consecutive down days the bear has reaped their reward and back to waiting for another entry.
Buying the bottom of a rally is not the bears way!
For the Bull ——
The Bull listened to the Feds warnings and added hedge protection on their newly acquired profits.
It’s a time for the bull to be cautious as volatility can spring up at anytime and suppress a rally like we saw this morning.
Bears & Bulls
Both the Bull and Bear notice the VIX selling off at 27 yesterday and plan entries and exits carefully to profit off the quick changing swings in momentum.
The weekly trend still heavily favors the downside.
But realize we are in the Trendless \ Volatility areas of the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
Should we drop out of the cloud expect increased momentum to the downside.
Volatility changes in both directions should be respected.
Yesterdays short covering rally into the close was a good indication just how well the markets are hedged.
Vanna and Charm flows are strongest in the morning and before close.
These are the Vol buybacks as a result of prolonged Vol suppression.
Thanks for Reading. Not Financial Advice. Only Flynn's perspective.
This is a bad thing in the eyes of the FED!
Why?
Because Jerome Powell is trying lower employment numbers.
Strong Employment, Strong Economy.
Isn’t that a Good thing?
Not when inflation is this Sticky!
Jerome Powell is trying to put out the flames of a hot economy to bring down inflation.
For the Bear ——
The patient bear listened to warning signs that Jerome was going to be hawkish at Jackson Hole and was rewarded with a well timed short at the top of a Bear Market Rally.
The top of the Ichimoku Cloud was rejected on the 1day that resulted in a strong Bearish Island Reversal pattern now playing out.
After 4 consecutive down days the bear has reaped their reward and back to waiting for another entry.
Buying the bottom of a rally is not the bears way!
For the Bull ——
The Bull listened to the Feds warnings and added hedge protection on their newly acquired profits.
It’s a time for the bull to be cautious as volatility can spring up at anytime and suppress a rally like we saw this morning.
Bears & Bulls
Both the Bull and Bear notice the VIX selling off at 27 yesterday and plan entries and exits carefully to profit off the quick changing swings in momentum.
The weekly trend still heavily favors the downside.
But realize we are in the Trendless \ Volatility areas of the daily Ichimoku Cloud.
Should we drop out of the cloud expect increased momentum to the downside.
Volatility changes in both directions should be respected.
Yesterdays short covering rally into the close was a good indication just how well the markets are hedged.
Vanna and Charm flows are strongest in the morning and before close.
These are the Vol buybacks as a result of prolonged Vol suppression.
Thanks for Reading. Not Financial Advice. Only Flynn's perspective.
Publikasi terkait
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.