S&P500 - Still Bearish ?

22 Feb 2018

S&P500 retraced 61% of the fall and turned back again (a typical ABC correction). MA50 is acting as a strong resistance. Most of the earnings are out and there isn't enough substance to push it further up rapidly. I think market may not have typical C wave (1.6 times of wave A) but MA200 is something to monitor closely. Markets might continue to have higher daily volatility and move sideways for a few months.
We may need another 2 months time to have a fair estimate on dollar strength, bonds prices, Yuan oil futures, earnings of companies.

Disclaimer: This is just my opinion, not an advice. Trade at your own risk.

23 Feb 2018

Catatan

Upswing with decreasing volume indicates that buyers are on sidelines for better confirmation. "Buy the dip" crowd has jumped in and purchased as they believe new Tax law will help companies invest in their companies and boost earnings (I don't see companies investing in expansion. Most of them are interested in just stock buybacks). Upswing with low volume is generally good (for breakouts - high volume breakout is good). That is why it didn't fall drastically again and holding up at 50% of range decline. If it can't move over MA50 with strong support then it can't hold there longer.
Even if their is no good news...lack of bad news itself is good enough for them to push prices up. But...there are several uncertainties over bond prices...that is why I see a sideways movement.

2 Mar 2018

Catatan

see how support and resistance moving around MA and Fib levels

5 Mar 2018

Catatan

6 Mar 2018

Catatan

Market is not able to penetrate through consolidation zone. The last candle today is like a hanging man candle at consolidation zone indicates that market still has concerns and is very cautious.
Even after markets push through consolidation zone...this entire month we will have volatility especially last week of the month.
Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum are a big concern for now.

7 Mar 2018

Catatan

Very funny - Market stopped right at consolidation zone again. This indicates bullish for now. There is a diamond structure internally confirming market uncertainty with 140 Pts hight...so market could move 140 points in either direction once it starts moving away from consolidation zone.
Trump might sign steel Tariffs over Weekend...may not be as harsh as expected...but Monday's trading will be crucial for judging further direction.

8 Mar 2018

Catatan

FYI...Trump is expected to hold a tariff signing ceremony at 3:30 p.m. ET Thursday.

9 Mar 2018

Trading ditutup: target tercapai

There are still a few fundamental issues in the market. But, technically...I think, market turned bullish now...away from 50MA and consolidation zone (there would be some resistance around 2788)
Closing tracking here today...will track with another chart later...