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A Stock market crash can trigger a recession
Steepening cycles in the US yield curve have preceded stock market crashes in the past, and so far, this time is no different. As measured by the difference between the 10-year bond yield and the 2-year bond yield, the yield curve is now rising and made a higher high last night. The continued trend is toward a risk-off by investors out of equities into the safety of two-year or shorter-term bonds. Such stock market sell-offs have also resulted in a recession in the past so one follows the next.
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