SPX | The cake is a lie
Diupdate
This is not the 2008 Recession. This is deception. This is the Recession nobody remembers.
SPX by itself doesn't show the entire truth. The monster of QE clouds your vision, clouds your judgement. It's strength, it's pressure pushes everything upwards so much. Too much... Until you are in a delusion.
The 2020 Black Swan was not black. He was in the shadows. One of the lights that can help you see him is the SPX*US10Y chart. In the "Related Ideas" there is the link to the inventor of the chart.
This is the 2020 Black Swan we all witnessed.
This is the 2018 Recession that really happened.
For reference, this is the modified chart from 2008.
And the chart from 2022.
Pattern taken from 2008 and fits like a glove.
We are also in UTAD, in a long-term Wyckoff Distribution.
Is it a conspiracy theory? It could be. The easiest method of manipulating the economy is with bonds. They make them and they define the base yield. So in theory and in practice, they can affect the economy any way they want. In short, they could in theory hide a recession in an ocean of money, in the era of information and QE.
They are after your money. They will do anything to take them. Watch out. Who knows what trap they will set up now...
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
SPX by itself doesn't show the entire truth. The monster of QE clouds your vision, clouds your judgement. It's strength, it's pressure pushes everything upwards so much. Too much... Until you are in a delusion.
The 2020 Black Swan was not black. He was in the shadows. One of the lights that can help you see him is the SPX*US10Y chart. In the "Related Ideas" there is the link to the inventor of the chart.
This is the 2020 Black Swan we all witnessed.
This is the 2018 Recession that really happened.
For reference, this is the modified chart from 2008.
And the chart from 2022.
Pattern taken from 2008 and fits like a glove.
We are also in UTAD, in a long-term Wyckoff Distribution.
Is it a conspiracy theory? It could be. The easiest method of manipulating the economy is with bonds. They make them and they define the base yield. So in theory and in practice, they can affect the economy any way they want. In short, they could in theory hide a recession in an ocean of money, in the era of information and QE.
They are after your money. They will do anything to take them. Watch out. Who knows what trap they will set up now...
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
Catatan
You know why this is more probably correct than false? Because anatomically, the 2000 Recession, the 2000 modified, the 2008, the 2008 modified, the 2018 modified and the 2022 are all anatomically identical. Identical to the last detail.Catatan
Don't you find it weird that the 2020 crash occured when DJI was at this specific ceiling? It was the peak in 2008. For the last 20 years, we have never went an inch above it.Another perfect ceiling.
Catatan
Normal times vs extraordinary times.Like in Quantum Mechanics, when you observe a particle, its quantum location reduces to a single location. When the party ends, the economy should return to it's former trend. Both charts should validate one another.
So we should eventually return to a time below the peak of 2000 and 2008.
SPX/M2SL validates that we had no growth these last 20 years.
Catatan
DJI*US10Y rejected off of a ceiling.Catatan
This is how the deception may play out. A crash by Q1 2023. Everyone will think that the crisis is over, and that this is the main event. Then, at an unexpected time, the reset will come.This could play out much faster than anyone expects. After all, this bubble is twice as fast and twice as strong as the 2000, 2008, and 2018 crises. See you next year.
Catatan
In order to figure out the short-term dynamics, we need to figure out the effect of SPX and US10Y in the product. We end up with a suprisingly bullish chart, which may not last long though.SPX/US10Y looks significantly oversold. Therefore for the following months, we expect as much as 50% of growth in SPX compared to a constant US10Y at ~3.6%.
This tells us that SPX has only short-term capabilities to grow compared to US10Y.
Catatan
During the 2018 recession (the one no-one remembers), we had increasing values of SPX, when in fact we were in a recession. The cost of money (1/US10Y) was decreasing. We were losing money and not realizing it.This year, many are selling because they fear they are dropping. When in fact, the opposite happens than 2018. As SPY_Master mentioned, we have equities getting increasingly riskier and overbought, even though their prices are dropping. It is a year where you should have held in stocks during this year's recession, and sell before the next bull run.
THAT is the "trap" I was trying to figure out. Don't treat equity prices and indices for their values. Seek the true value in things.
Catatan
Another chart that shows the bearish long-term sentiment.SPX*US10Y has significant resistance above from the 12M ribbon, stochastics don't help the situation AT ALL.
Catatan
Something changed after August of 2013...As if US10Y and DJI were not directly connected until then.
And after that date they made a new type of relationship.
This difference is not easily discernible in the independent US10Y chart, it is visible on the DJI * US10Y product chart.
Catatan
This is the updated chart:
Catatan
We got robbed!Confusing I know...
Catatan
The violation of this trend marks the end of QE. This shows the true effect. I hope you all understand it.With Green and Red arrows, I have marked the points I used to draw the rays.
These long-term rays, prove as significant resistance.
Hitting one of them, was a fundamental reason the Black Monday was so severe.
Catatan
The SPX*(US10Y+1+1/US10Y) chart shows some clear bear channels.On the SPX chart they appear as follows:
Catatan
I've been hearing people on YouTube, in a channel called Real Vision Finance, where they talked about how the "bottoming" behavior that occurred this summer had the features of a "topping" structure. We had significant gap-ups instead of significant gap-downs. Someone smarter and more experienced than me talked about it. Unfortunately, I don't remember on which video they talked about it.It's not me that first talked about how equities are not in a recession yet. spy_master invented the incredible SPX/(1/US10Y) chart which calculates just that. SPX Transformations with either bonds or the yield curve, result in similar conclusions. There is much room for us to drop.
In QE Booms, like 2018-2020, equities lost real value while their price got higher. In QT Booms like 2022, equities gained real value while their price got lower.
It is a lose-lose scenario. In 2018-2020 an investment in SPX would give out more money, but the output would be of less value. In a sense, no real wealth was made. In 2022 an investment in SPX would lose money, but it would be more of value.
This upside-down scenario is concerning... Are we entering a period when a dwindling SPX is "more profitable" for certain massive investors? Those who own fundamentals of the economy (banks, commodity producers), not those who seek to invest in their dollar-denominated price.
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