S&P 500 ATH in Q1 on even years

4 Feb

In every even year S&P 500 reaches its ATH in Q1, which is followed by rapid and deep decline.

Why can it crash? Look how similar S&P 500 behaviour between May 1986-December 1987 and October 2022-February 2024.


The 1987 crash started on the way from 1.414 to 1.618 fibo.
If the S&P 500 hasn't already topped on Feb 2 with a value of 4975, then the price range between the Fibonacci levels of 1.414 (5025) and 1.618 (5235) is the potential topping zone. From February 2 to mid-March, the peak is expected to occur.
I'm not saying we will definitely crash, but a significant downward movement is anticipated soon.
Basic scenario bottom: 4250-4500 Mid March - Mid May
Crash scenario bottom: 3500-4250 Mid March - Mid May

14 Mei

Catatan

The Q1 peak finally occurred at the very end of March, which shifts the intermediate bottom to June.
Basic scenario bottom: 4550-4850
Crash scenario bottom: 3800-4550
The Accurately calculated Fibonacci 1.618 level is 5296.44, 2% leeway 5402.37. The SPX faces strong resistance in the 5200-5400 area. Calendar events to watch:
05/15/2024: US CPI Report
05/22/2024: NVIDIA Earnings Report
Better move into cash.

23 Mei

Catatan

It was an ideal opportunity to sell today 05/23/2024 right after NVIDIA Earnings Report. ATH or major intermediate peak has been probably set. Establishing short positions is preferrable now.

22 Jul

Catatan

Finally it was a 5.9% correction that ended on 19 of April, which seems insufficient given the current market valuations. This adds more pressure on the market for the second half of 2024. More updates here: