Bull trap incoming?
Overlay is QQQ from correction of late 2018. Looking for massive pumps in the upcoming days to get this thing to fill gaps overhead. Situation very similar to November 2018 FOMC. At that time Fed held rates steady (as had been the expectation) and Powell tried to calm the market down... it last for about a day before making new lows 2 weeks later.
I'm expecting history to repeat itself. The CPI report was actually somewhat low-key bullish showing disinflation in several categories, so expect the Fed to talk about data dependency and patience while doing the .25% hike as markets expect. With the rug pull scenario off the table, it's possible the market rallies on the news. But just like the market bought the news on the invasion... This IMO should be a sell the news event.
I'm expecting history to repeat itself. The CPI report was actually somewhat low-key bullish showing disinflation in several categories, so expect the Fed to talk about data dependency and patience while doing the .25% hike as markets expect. With the rug pull scenario off the table, it's possible the market rallies on the news. But just like the market bought the news on the invasion... This IMO should be a sell the news event.
Catatan
Sold off initially on rates expecting to be above neutral but of course in a surprise to no one papa powell strokes the bulls hard once more... Trap is now set for the all the hanger-ons to pile into the momentum trade here in the coming days, but as soon as we get this diagonal painted this thing should turn around quick.
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