S&P 500 Stage 1 Expansion May Begin Next 5 Week Candle

25 Okt 2022

Hi Everyone! We have a new 5-Week candle in approximately 17-Days and 13-Hours from this writing. At which point we are subject to BEGIN Stage 1 Expansion of the B-Bands and price action is likely to go DOWN with this expansion. Hence, the reason it is called, "Stage 1 Expansion Down." This particular move has increased odds of occurring when the Red Line, Blue Line and Green Line are ALL going down and ALL lines are below Yellow Level 50 inside the Phoenix Ascending indicator.

It makes sense for the market to be going up at present. Why? Because "they" do not want it to go down before the election. Why? Because they want to keep the narrative going that the economy is doing fine under the Biden Administration. Yet, there is a chance we do not even see an election. Especially, if "they" believe it would be impossible for them to win an election. In that case, we may begin Stage 1 Expansion Down the last few days of this current 5-Week candle. Time will tell. In either case, we have increased odds to begin going down soon.



We are currently going up with a "Last Point of Supply" event in Phase D of Distribution. The next event < according to the indicators > may likely be a transition from Phase D into Phase E of Distribution with a "Sign of Weakness" event.



The Red Line is currently well below White Level 30.

Why is this significant?

Because we generally require the Red Line to rise above
White Level 30 in order for the price action to rise up
from the White Lower B-Bands. This means the White
Lower B-Band will normally act as resistance until the
Red Line is in a position to rise up above White Level 30.

Since our Red Line is well below White Level 30 with
21-Days still remaining in the current 20-Day candle, we
must conclude our Ceiling of Resistance is within proximity
of the White Lower B-Band. Which is currently at 3956.08.

This is why I'm concluding our current "event" in a Wyckoff
Distribution Schematic is a "Last Point of Supply" event;
just before falling down to a much lower low with another
event called, "Sign of Weakness" in Phase E.

20-Day time frame:


The following Distribution Schematic Points our where our Last Point of Supply event may find its peak before we reverse back down again to begin our transition from Phase D into Phase E with a Sign of Weakness event.



Hope this opinion helps.

Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!

25 Okt 2022

Catatan

UPDATE:

A closer look when Stage One Expansion DOWN began in the years 2000 and 2008.

29 Okt 2022

Catatan

UPDATE:

Update for current Wyckoff 2.0 Distribution Schematic:

20 Des 2022

Catatan

UPDATE:

Simply following up from previous post October 28, 2022; in which I said we have increased odds of running up to white/aqua upper b-bands in the 3-Day. That's where we ultimately ended up for a while before falling DOWN FROM the white upper b-band.

Pointing out a previous example of Red Line falling DOWN FROM White Level 70 equates to price falling DOWN FROM White Upper B-Band. You also see in previous the Red Line crossed below Blue; indicating bearish sentiment in previous example:



Added Target for this Distribution Cycle potentially ending some time during 2023. Yes, this would require multiple Sign of Weakness events in Phase E. Multiple Sign of Weakness events in Phase E is common.