Black Swan Song
The Fat Lady will sing the Black Swan Dive. It is coming. Do not be fooled. Watch the volume fade on this summertime pump.
When the real bull market returns, volume will INCREASE with increasing price. Not like this, bull trap about to snap shut on MOMO crowd.
Every bear market for 200 years has done this. Massive 50% retracement rally on low volume, "It's over! The Bottom is In!" then the Swan Song.
If you don't sell short then just sell and get into cash. A measured move from this price could reach ~3200 in October. You want to take that ride?
If you stubbornly want to hold your stonks, then FGS sell calls on them and use the money to buy puts on your shares, hedge your position.
Married puts paid for with covered calls are free insurance. Think about it!
When the real bull market returns, volume will INCREASE with increasing price. Not like this, bull trap about to snap shut on MOMO crowd.
Every bear market for 200 years has done this. Massive 50% retracement rally on low volume, "It's over! The Bottom is In!" then the Swan Song.
If you don't sell short then just sell and get into cash. A measured move from this price could reach ~3200 in October. You want to take that ride?
If you stubbornly want to hold your stonks, then FGS sell calls on them and use the money to buy puts on your shares, hedge your position.
Married puts paid for with covered calls are free insurance. Think about it!
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Look at the waveform past 40 days. Jagged and choppy. A B wave. Real bull impulse is steep, parabolic, rocket flight trajectory. This is series of ragged pops. Fail soon IMOTrade aktif
Fri and Mon DCA into 600 SPXS. Flipped calls on a gapfill and puts on a backfill. In cash again, holding the bear shares; wait to see if the MOMO crowd can boost to the Fibo at 4309.Catatan
Gonna load some shortsCatatan
Opened 3 SQQQ 16 Sep $34 Calls net 2.83x300Catatan
Taking it small cuz IMO can have a last gasp to top off, maybe Tues? idkCatatan
Russell finally creeps back to close the gap. Short entry when it gets there IMOTrade aktif
Opened 2 TZA Sep 16 28C net debit 2x200Catatan
NB: DJT, RUT still red, when they go green probably short entry IMOTrade aktif
Opened Calendar spread 1 Sep IWM 200P short 0dte 200p net debit 4.81Catatan
Buying TZA, SQQQ 50 eachCatatan
SPX at 4290 within a few pips of the 0.62 retrace ~4309Catatan
Increased all the above 1 each. Look how it struggles to reach the Fibo!Catatan
Touching the Blue LIneCatatan
Added 50 each TZA, SQQQ. You can hold these and sleep at night. get some puts later in week. ERs coming on WMT, HD 16 Aug PRIOR to open.
Place ur bets now!
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Closed most of the shorts on AM gap. Maybe a mistake but take what it gives you. Holding SPXS.Catatan
Back in SQQQ calls, Sep $34Trade aktif
Closed all shorts on gap +3% bear shares, look for red>green re-entryCatatan
Flipping callsCatatan
Looks as if the high might be in at 4315, see if it tests again.Catatan
Headed back to lows. Day is long, see where it goes. No position, watch, wait.Catatan
Mood has changed. Previous gaps down filled quickly and enthusiastically. This one, not filling, got a partial backfill and slammed down on it. IMO a DT has started.Catatan
FOMC minutes later today might see the gap fill after 2PM. Be cautious.Catatan
Taking NO position prior to minutes release. Look at the retracement so far, for two hours now been hanging near the opening price. Could pop higher EOD.Catatan
LOL MOMO FOMOTrade aktif
Re-entering SPXS Covered writes 200 shares short 2 weekly $18 calls net debit 17.60x200Catatan
Now the media getting into it; "Stonk rally faces challenge at 200 MDA"Catatan
DJI Red>Green!Catatan
Gonna get me a SPY 430 put.Catatan
Got 31 Aug SPY 430P short Friday's weekly 425 Net Debit $5.1Catatan
Not loading up until we see EOD. NAZ should close the gap.Catatan
Opened 3 SQQQ Sep 35C net debit 2.9x300Catatan
Could try for another local top run not loading up eod, add if it lifts in am Thurs.Catatan
Closed all shorts for tiny gain. Probably gonna try to bull it again imo. Fibo time could have second top on/about tues 22 aug. Top might already be in, impossible to say.Catatan
Typical morning chop, early ride is rough. See if it smooths out and perhaps lifts higher. Not anxious to give it back today.Catatan
RUT flat, DJT green, suggests may move up to test the local high.Catatan
There it is. Flipped qqq 330p for a buckTrade aktif
Opening 3x SQQQ 23 Sep 34.5c at 3.30x300 = 1K; 45 days to expCatatan
EOD added 4 SQQQ calls and took 3 qqq 330p. Pattern has been AM volatility yielding to bulls. Let's see.Catatan
Nice!it's a textbook break, expect lift to retest lower tl then the selloff begins.
Murphy, Technical Analysis of Financial Markets, p.109 fig 4-10a
cdn.preterhuman.net/texts/unsorted2/Stock%20books%20029/John%20J%20Murphy%20-%20Technical%20Analysis%20Of%20The%20Financial%20Markets.pdf
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Closed all shorts. Trades at the overnight lows. Likely to get a retrace soon. Who knows could sell more idk. Took what the market gave wake up +1k cant complain.
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Re-entered, closed and flipped calls. Feels like intraday bottom forming after first hour in trade. Might not get a big retracement today, be cautious.Catatan
Flipped calls on weak lift. Closed, not enthusiastic.Catatan
Keep lookin for a re-entry I guess it was 1pm, not retracing may sell again eodCatatan
Price is just locked here fgs, spy/qqq ~ -6$ all pmCatatan
So bearish yet so little to be gained. Catching the gap was a gift. Was more to be had intraday but tbvh if you look at SPY it's been locked around 422 x four hours, give or take a buck. hardly worth risk-on to get a position, just to watch your time value dwindle.Might tank into close if shorts have been covered. No position.
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So damned funny to read the media, now gone from "Bull market is back!" to "Signs the Bear Market Rally wont last", ROFLMAO... now it's a bear rally again.IMO topped on 8/16. Expect a bounce mon/tues on technicals, oversold, then lower again.
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Ever notice how your bear shares just dont match the market moves? EG; closed my SPXS early on for $18.45.Since then the index tanked off another 15 pips but the etf is still just 18.65. Where's my money?! you ask.. and well you should.
These inverse etfs do not contain ANYTHING OF REAL VALUE. There is NO EQUITY, NO STONKS, only futures contracts and some LEAP options. All is imaginary fluff!
Early on in a gap down the futures jump and trade at a premium. Often you get the best price there in first quarter hour, even if the underlying trades lower, the futures settle down and trade for less. By EOD some time value has also run out! These etfs can lose 3-5% on time value decay alone in a just a day. DO NOT HOLD INVERSE ETFs!! You buy these on SPec and FLip them quick!
NO position on weekend. Wait, see. Stonks will still be there Monday, useless to guess what the price might be then!
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Be ready for a pivot. See what the euros do overnite. BTFD is not yet dead, should get a rise back to breakdown price and there is a gap to fill from Fri AM.OFC panic selling could get going and trigger stops in a cascade. Trade lightly!
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Euros closed the gap in London after chop but DAX went down stays down; be careful!Catatan
FYI Jackson Hole this week, ka-Powell speech Friday 10 am.Catatan
These gaps just suck. Shoulda kept a runner, eh? LOL, ah well, got served crumbs from the Master's Table.Probly gonna get a bounce soon, might leg down once more. no position.
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Flipped few daily calls and puts for nickels & dimes. When it opens up big gap -60 like this you can just get killed. Small positions or none at all. You worry bout gapfill when shorting early am but that was not a problem today. Now we got two gaps to fill.IMO the bear momentum wanes, thinking about longs, see what Tues brings. Stepping out.
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Flipped calls early on sitting out now. Might get a weak bull wave or maybe not.Catatan
Expect more happy to glad BS on Powell out of Jackson Hole. Sideways to slight higher until then. Chance of a pullback with scattered ichimoku clouds and put showers. No position.Catatan
holding its breath... either way possible... all are waitingCatatan
I'm thinkin this pattern should develop an H&S goin into right shoulder now before the major dump. Perhaps secondary lower top by Fri 2Sep. Usually rolls over after 3 Sep, which is a Saturday this year.Catatan
Flipped calls and puts today, small potatoes. Opening UVXY against my better judgment and all odds. Into 400 shares @9.2 short friday's 9.5c for 0.15c, net $9.06 w/comm.Catatan
BTW Here's the H&S forming... might get higher Friday AM, short if it does and DCA into these VIX shares. UVXY usually worst investment ever but when VIX pops these shares rocket. Can't hold them for more than a few days!Catatan
Not loading up EOD but you probably could start entering shorts. IMO there's a week or less left on upside before the bottom falls out. Load up on bear shares if we get another nice pop Fri.
Next week could be bearish again or just flat to squeaking higher. This is a weekly Dead Zone, lol.
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Opening 2 Sep 39c on SQQQ at $245. Got a 2/3 retracement on SPX here EOD from the lower top drop.Might be getting real close to rollover, soon eh?
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Watch VVIX. Back at 84, support price since june. This index diverges, lifts sooner than VIX, it's a leading indicator for incoming volatility.Catatan
Gap at 4018 to fill before throwover. I see lot of bully posts, "going to 4500, 4600, new ath..." badly mistaken imo.This is a textbook bear market rally with rejection, breakdown, retest rally on low volume... and throwover to follow.
Not going above 4300, not going ATH, not going much higher... retest likely to reject around the .62 fibo and head much lower in a hurry.
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Nice prop, lol. Red>Green O/N. Might be headed for double top ~4300?Trade aktif
Closed all out early trade actually up 50 bucks. Holding nothing before speech. Could get stupid bullish, illogical, irrational, but is what it does.Catatan
VIX up .25c before news, anxious chop. Could evaporate in minutes. Best to see first then trade imo.Guessing what it might do usually not productive...
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Premiums for all contracts up quite a bit before news event. $1 calls trading for 2.50, not a good bet imo.Catatan
Calls $5 OTM 0DTE trading for 60c, usually get these for 15c... not touching it nowCatatan
NB: Overnight futures traded -55 ish and it has filled back down at 09:50. Might get a bull wave on btfd.Anything can happen, but a straddle or strangle with inflated premiums probly wont pay either.
Catatan
NB: Remember I posted earlier how UVXY trades at a premium early on? I closed for 9.16 and 15m later with VIX + 45c it's still just 9.17... so hard to win on that etfCatatan
Did nothing and look: The $2.5 calls are $1.50 now at the money. The premiums blew out. You could have made a buck off the wild ride or lost your shirt but prices are back to normal and if you paid too much you lose.Catatan
Gosh they didn't like it, lol. Flipped a few puts it sold back all yesterday's gains. Will it run back up? Bah!Catatan
Yeah probly gonna sell again Monday. Doesn't have a lotta bounce in it.Catatan
Dont see this bouncing soon. Probly gap down monday again imoCatatan
Just a look back at this idea, amazing how it filled in! Pats back, heh.Bottom not yet in imo, rally near a lower top.
Catatan
Well well. Here we are again... bulls don't get too excited, a lower top is near.
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