SPX Update

21 Agu 2023

Starting to see buyers and a base. I am thinking this next two weeks ending of August 2023 we will build support on my white fib, which is only a 23% level in this range. But, if it can bull flag here, next stop would be the 61.8% of this theoretical fib extension channel and that's way up there around 7100. I don't think we will revisit the current short term point of control in the volume range I show. I think we'll ignore that 4100 level and just run for the finish line. That way, later, this will be the new balance pointwhen we fall for ever and ever and ever and ever and ever through 2030. My ghost bars are just a guess at the speed of the fall, but could go way faster. Who knows? I don't think the economy will be that terrible, I just think we'll be so far away from the MA at that point it won't matter what the numbers say.

Since I don't follow the news for trading decisions, I am very curious what will be said if and when this last price extension plays out. I was wondering what narrative would drive this last bump and AI must be it. I dislike every AI thing I get on YouTube and yet... it keeps asking me to watch stuff about it. The social media narrative is that AI is everywhere, and I think low volume buys are gonna drive every stock attached to it. Tesla. NVIDIA. whatever. I don't think fair prices are up there, but what I believe doesn't matter.

As always, I am a slave to the data, and the data says either we back test that point of control at 4100 (highest volume zone) or we escape this reasonable technical hurdle and burst up on Michael Burry's short covering. Lol. Thanks MIKE.

First week of September, if we're hovering on average around 4450 or so, I'm guessing that could be like maybe the best most profitable buy point in recent memory.

Or, you know, My fibs are wrong and everything goes to crap right now. No biggie.

21 Agu 2023

Catatan

To be clear, my white fib channel is not what HAS happened. It is a predictive channel based on past price action and volume. It is purely a thesis on where the price will stop. I've moved it and changed it as we've made these huge swings up here after covid, and the red channel is the counter narrative bear channel extension. These meet where my top is. Now, I think despite the huge fall forever and ever and ever, we may get bullish again and just go mostly sideways for years to avoid the bear channel that is forming, because following it from the top to the bottom is stupid low prices. Like back to 1997 levels. And I think the white channel is going to be our new very long term channel that matters. And the long term bull channel we've been in since 1930s won't matter anymore. Unfortunately, this may see a very very long price correction, maybe on China depression and transition back to local production over a decade... but you know... all for the better I think. Population decrease is really gonna mess up growth until Tesla Bot comes into play. (I can't tell if I'm joking about this or not. Maybe 50/50).