$SPX - The Russian Flu 1998 vs 2014
1998
Two external shocks, the Asian financial crisis that had begun in 1997 and the following declines in demand for (and thus price of) crude oil and nonferrous metals, severely impacted Russian foreign exchange reserves.
On 17 August 1998, the Russian government devalued the ruble, defaulted on domestic debt, and declared a moratorium on payment to foreign creditors.
The U.S. stock market, following a decade of rapid and accelerating increases, began to slip in early August 1998, amid fears about Asia and Russia. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 984 points, or 11.5%, in 3 days at the end of August, to a level 19% below its July peak. This more than erased the year's market gains. The U.S. stock market remained depressed until October, when a series of interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve propelled it back upward.
2014
Ukrainian crisis in progress. Ukraine already without Crimea and with the civil war in the east of the country.
What next?
I expect /invariably/ the Russian military intervention in Ukraine and deep correction in the markets.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Russian_financial_crisis
cnbc.com/id/101677465
Two external shocks, the Asian financial crisis that had begun in 1997 and the following declines in demand for (and thus price of) crude oil and nonferrous metals, severely impacted Russian foreign exchange reserves.
On 17 August 1998, the Russian government devalued the ruble, defaulted on domestic debt, and declared a moratorium on payment to foreign creditors.
The U.S. stock market, following a decade of rapid and accelerating increases, began to slip in early August 1998, amid fears about Asia and Russia. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 984 points, or 11.5%, in 3 days at the end of August, to a level 19% below its July peak. This more than erased the year's market gains. The U.S. stock market remained depressed until October, when a series of interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve propelled it back upward.
2014
Ukrainian crisis in progress. Ukraine already without Crimea and with the civil war in the east of the country.
What next?
I expect /invariably/ the Russian military intervention in Ukraine and deep correction in the markets.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Russian_financial_crisis
cnbc.com/id/101677465
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