Risk-Weighted Index Hints 'Risk On' is Back Near Term

As our proprietary risk-weighted index shows, the recovery above the 100-ema in the hourly chart suggests that in the short-term, risk-seeking conditions are likely to be dominant, even if major events as the ECB, BoE or US CPI will also have a major impact in volatility. The index has been mainly assisted by the sell-off in the USD, allowing a significant recovery in the MSCI EM index, while global equities remain underpinned, recovering its early losses on hopes for a resumption of trade talks with China.

As a general rule, when the index is above the 100-ema, currencies associated with riskier strategies such as the AUD, NZD, GBP, CAD should benefit against the likes of the JPY, USD.