SOXX Trend Retest Short Idea

27 Agu

This is one of my 5 favorite setups this week that I went over in my video yesterday. I haven't had time to post the text versions yet so I'm doing it now. SOXX just rejected off of a major trendline retest, just like it has several times in the past and it has always led to continued downside. We'll see what happens with NVDA earnings, it may be the first time there's a negative reaction to it in a long time.

28 Agu

Catatan

We'll see if NVDA recovers from the after hours drop tomorrow or not, but it's not looking great for bulls at the moment. I believe SOXX was a good indication of what was to come this week, but it's never a sure thing. Outside of the April sell off, NVDA hasn't ever shown any real weakness and has rallied every time on earnings This time looks to be different, there were signs.

This may be the last gasp we see out of NVDA as SMCI and other semis are likely to continue plummeting as well. Maybe GDP or PCE can spark a quick recovery, but for now the path of least resistance is down on pretty much everything, especially if ES doesn't reclaim 5600 soon.

3 Sep

Catatan

This is working out well, unfortunately I didn't take, other than a few puts on AMD. NVDA got hammered today along with SOXX. This major trend retest and fail should not be ignored. We've already seen stocks like SMCI, MU, and others get cut in half.

NVDA is threatening to drop below $100 and the August low. April low would be my next target around $75. Final target for NVDA by mid 2025 or sooner is $30-$35.