8/21/24 - $SCHW - Oppty cost too high >$50
8/21/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
SCHW
Oppty cost too high >$50
- will start by saying, i think these businesses are much more cyclical and slow moving than what i typically look at
- the stock has been pretty dead money esp on it's SPY comp for a few years at this pt
- the key here will be whether the right EPS is $4 or $5 in the coming year ('25 let's say). the street is optimistic we go from $3 to $4, but wall street is always optimistic (keep that in mind).
- if the truth is, these guys somehow re invigorate growth (i have a schwab account btw and really don't enjoy having it but the alternatives, admittedly also suck)... the stock is probably getting interesting if we enter the 50s.
- but for me to pull the trigger i'd like to see something sub 15x and without any degradation of the macro i.e. some "banking" crisis type headline that sends all these things in passive funds without any bids and that's where we can scoop value.
- if you're a patient investor that *needs* some banks/ financials exposure i'd say i'd still prefer
HOOD (but not at current levels) because I think they are ultimately a better UX and beneficiary of a lot of generational flows.
- $62 on $4 of EPS is 15x. needs to prove that's the case in the coming 6 months (i'm not close enough). if we start entering low
50S say $50 itself... on something closer to $4...$4.5 in the coming year - now we're talking.
- too many words to say... i think i can do better in this environment and not have the feeling that i need to babysit the position. if i really really wanted to own it, perhaps i'd sell some call options for income. just don't see the catalyst.
V
SCHWOppty cost too high >$50
- will start by saying, i think these businesses are much more cyclical and slow moving than what i typically look at
- the stock has been pretty dead money esp on it's SPY comp for a few years at this pt
- the key here will be whether the right EPS is $4 or $5 in the coming year ('25 let's say). the street is optimistic we go from $3 to $4, but wall street is always optimistic (keep that in mind).
- if the truth is, these guys somehow re invigorate growth (i have a schwab account btw and really don't enjoy having it but the alternatives, admittedly also suck)... the stock is probably getting interesting if we enter the 50s.
- but for me to pull the trigger i'd like to see something sub 15x and without any degradation of the macro i.e. some "banking" crisis type headline that sends all these things in passive funds without any bids and that's where we can scoop value.
- if you're a patient investor that *needs* some banks/ financials exposure i'd say i'd still prefer
HOOD (but not at current levels) because I think they are ultimately a better UX and beneficiary of a lot of generational flows. - $62 on $4 of EPS is 15x. needs to prove that's the case in the coming 6 months (i'm not close enough). if we start entering low
50S say $50 itself... on something closer to $4...$4.5 in the coming year - now we're talking.- too many words to say... i think i can do better in this environment and not have the feeling that i need to babysit the position. if i really really wanted to own it, perhaps i'd sell some call options for income. just don't see the catalyst.
V
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