RUT - UP or DOWN??? "HSO"

20 Nov 2019

BLUF: RUT is at the top of its channel and SPX at the bottom both flags in opposite direction...will the RUT decouple and go Higher...Who Fookin knows, but it will be very interesting to watch and YES...any bad News/Tweets could Fook the whole thing up! Let's find out...TBD

HSO/Hotel-Sierra-Oscar/HEAD SHOTs ONLY!!! Simpleton-Leadership...TEAMs! Fook your beliefs...What's in front of us?

20 Nov 2019

Catatan

My homebrewed MAPE is the sum of the S&P 500 forward P/E and the Misery Index (Fig. 7). It averaged 23.8 from September 1978 through October 2019. Readings above (below) the average suggest stocks are overvalued (undervalued). It was 22.6 during October, i.e., below average. MAPE correctly warned that stocks were overvalued prior to the bear markets of the early 1980s and 2000s. It did not anticipate the last bear market, but that’s because the problem back then was the overvaluation of real estate, not stocks.

blog.yardeni.com/2019/11/are-stocks-overvalued.html

20 Nov 2019

Catatan

America

The US Senate approved a bill yesterday that requires the State Department to annually certify that Hong Kong is sufficiently independent to justify the special trade relationship. This is an example of how the US Congress continues to defer to the executive branch its constitutional authority to regulate trade. Moreover, the Senate did not just pass the bill, it did so unanimously. This is truly a bipartisan effort. The House can take this bill up, or it can seek to reconcile its version with the Senate's. The Senate also passed a bill that would ban sales of munitions, broadly understood, to Hong Kong. The President has not weighed in yet, but it is seen giving him another chit in negotiations with China. Beijing has threatened unspecified retaliation if the bill becomes a law. Separately, Trump's rhetoric seems to have been dialed back on the US-China trade talks, but he has repeated his threat to raise tariffs higher if not agreement is struck. We have argued that the real deadline for the negotiations may be the middle of December when the next round of US levies on Chinese goods is threatened.

Note...Good ole profit taking!

marctomarket.com/2019/11/dollar-snaps-back.html

20 Nov 2019

Catatan

–Dec treasury options expire Friday and TYZ has now eclipsed the 129.75 strike. This is where gamma kicks in; there are 95k open positions in the 130 call (last at 129-26).

chartpoint.com/testing-highs-from-the-last-fomc-in-front-of-minutes/