Overview of the Markets - SPX RTY NQ IWM SOXX
Just an overview of what I'm seeing and why I'm still being patient with my short position. Of course if things don't start falling soon, we may have something else happening and I'll have to be open to that. I cover a few sectors that stand out to me as examples of structure and RSI which looks ready to turn down. Good luck!
Catatan
so far the futures have held support. the small time frame rsi are reset but hourly could go higher. If spx continues higher I would expect resistance around 4520 area. RTY and NQ both are outperforming to the downside as of now. Good luck! Catatan
IWM and KRE already down hard, if the banks start having issues again, both these indexes will lead to the downside. IWM - Catatan
KRE (regional banks) Catatan
on spx futures, support is found again around 4495 level. Under 4900 and this area of support "should" become a strong resistance on any bounce. Catatan
a few structural trendlines I'm watching on SPX. Unless they get under 4490 and hold under there, the possibility of a double top or higher is still there (on SPX).Catatan
they keep tapping away at this level, not sure it breaks though, bulls putting up a fight on SPX - not so much over in IWM. Catatan
on SPX we've been consolidating all day in a triangle it seems. A move up or down should be strong, depending on how it breaks Catatan
we're getting a breakdown into the close, but it could be fake with tomorrow gapping higher, hard to tell. 4490 has to break, whatever happens above 4490 doesn't really matter to me. we've been in a 40 point range since last Wednesday. Catatan
Good morning, the rsi on mid time frames is very oversold. Although we are under 4490, I expect some kind of kick back rally to help reset the RSI. 4510 area on SPX is now strong resistance since it couldn't be breached yesterday. You can see how much the market has been playing with that level since Wednesday of last week. Another test of it wouldn't surprise me, even if we go a bit lower first. Catatan
SPX could also be in a channel, I will watch both patterns Catatan
IWM looks like it's almost done with 5 waves. It's possible it IS done and today we get a relief rally. Catatan
impulsive move down on QQQ (tech)Catatan
Catatan
SPX now at the bottom of the proposed channel. Catatan
lower part of channel finding buyers, so it looks valid. I expect a test of the upper line. A breakout above it would be bullish. Catatan
A failure at 4500 (if they get there, and if it fails) - would correspond to the horizontal price support level from yesterday. Catatan
channel broke, 18 daily ma near 4450 - that would be target 1. Catatan
18 daily ma is the red line. Catatan
KRE (Regional Banks) down another 1.5% today. Markets seem know something that the news isn't talking about yet. Catatan
AAPL down almost 3% - selling big tech may now be the rotation for a while. Catatan
if we blow through the 18ma, the previous channel top should be support, but the 18daily ma would likely be resistance on any bounce. Catatan
daily 18ma reached, usually a support level and a short covering level. However, if it breaks below, the target will likely be the previous "wind up" channel from before - around 4420-4410, more of less. Catatan
it is possible this is a finish to the 3rd wave, RSI is very low already. A test of the channel which broke this morning would make sense overnight or tomorrow but it could be we get another move down to wave 5 and then bounce back up. Hard to say. I must stress that the RSI on mid time frames is EXTREMELY LOW, so any move down would likely put in a divergence and we get a bounce. In other words, caution is needed on the short side at this point. Catatan
QQQ is still quite a few points from it's 18 daily ma, so if we continue selling, I think QQQ would start dropping faster than the other markets. Catatan
Good morning, qqq and especially AAPL are selling off overnight. Any bounce (if they come today or tomorrow) is probably going to be small and fleeting. I'll be away until tomorrow afternoon, so no updates until then. Good luck! Catatan
jobs numbers at 8:30am EST us.econoday.com/byweek.aspCatatan
got back from my trip, the market looks like it corrected yesterday and today. so far the geometry of the previous structures have been holding up price for the last two sessions. If the ABC correction is finished (i think it is), we should see more downside into Monday (gap down) and further selling to the next support of 4370. I will make a new video this weekend. Good luck to all.
Catatan
latest video update is here - I will start using that video for updates this week. Good luck!
Catatan
new video update 
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