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Cup and Handle Pattern in Gasoline!
Next to Cocoa, Gasoline comes in 2nd place for the best total return performance in Q1 2024 amongst commodity markets. The infamous cup and handle pattern has emerged, adding a level of upside conviction in this trade.
Fundamentals:
Severe weather developments here in the USA and geopolitical supply chain disruption have caused refiner input costs to tick up slightly faster than normal. According to FactSet, the cost of gasoline shipments into New York Harbor next month has jumped 28% since the beginning of the year. This increase surpasses the average of 20% seen during the same period over the past quarter-century.
According to Bloomberg, "In Russia, an expanded Ukrainian drone campaign has hammered key refineries. The damage has required months-long repairs and pushed the Kremlin to conserve domestic supplies by curbing fuel exports."
Despite record U.S. production, these supply chain shocks have helped boost gasoline prices, thereby increasing refinery profits and margins for those companies that can remain operational. The next OPEC meeting is due on April 3rd, where further production cuts will act as another tailwind for higher crude and gasoline prices.
Technicals:
From a technical perspective, we can see a clear cup and handle pattern forming, which is typically a bullish chart pattern. We would need to see a break and close above $2.85 (the top of the August 15th gap lower) before testing the next major level of $2.95-$2.985. A break and close above this level is likely to lead to an upside breakout.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Fundamentals:
Severe weather developments here in the USA and geopolitical supply chain disruption have caused refiner input costs to tick up slightly faster than normal. According to FactSet, the cost of gasoline shipments into New York Harbor next month has jumped 28% since the beginning of the year. This increase surpasses the average of 20% seen during the same period over the past quarter-century.
According to Bloomberg, "In Russia, an expanded Ukrainian drone campaign has hammered key refineries. The damage has required months-long repairs and pushed the Kremlin to conserve domestic supplies by curbing fuel exports."
Despite record U.S. production, these supply chain shocks have helped boost gasoline prices, thereby increasing refinery profits and margins for those companies that can remain operational. The next OPEC meeting is due on April 3rd, where further production cuts will act as another tailwind for higher crude and gasoline prices.
Technicals:
From a technical perspective, we can see a clear cup and handle pattern forming, which is typically a bullish chart pattern. We would need to see a break and close above $2.85 (the top of the August 15th gap lower) before testing the next major level of $2.95-$2.985. A break and close above this level is likely to lead to an upside breakout.
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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