QuantumScape ($QS) | Long-Term Bet on Solid-State Battery Revolu

26 Jun

QuantumScape has officially re-entered our radar after today's +32.72% move—driven by their “Cobra” separator scaling breakthrough. Volume surged to 171M+ confirming a major displacement event.

From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) lens, the market structure shows repeated Change of Character (ChoCH) and Break of Structure (BOS) patterns, indicating institutional accumulation underway since late 2023.

Our internal Decision Support System (DSS) highlights this zone between $5.60–$7.50 as the “Equilibrium Rebuild Range.” The future projection targets $132.92, aligned with historical inefficiencies and Fibonacci cluster zones.

🔋 Catalysts to watch:

Cobra separator now in baseline production

Volkswagen licensing & Murata JV scaling

July 23, 2025: Q2 earnings & 2026 commercialization roadmap

💼 We are personally invested in QS and plan to scale out near the projected yellow level. Trade is actively monitored. Risk-managed with invalidation below key demand zones.

⚠️ This is not financial advice. For educational and strategic research purposes only.

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WaverVanir_International_LLC | Quantified Capital Deployment
#QS #QuantumScape #SolidState #BatteryTech #LongTermInvesting #WaverVanir #SMC #EVRevolution #OptionsFlow

17 Jul

Trade aktif

QuantumScape (QS): A High-Stakes Bet on the Future of Electric Vehicles
Fundamental Analysis: Pre-Revenue Pioneer with Game-Changing Technology

QuantumScape (NYSE: QS) is a development-stage company at the forefront of solid-state lithium-metal battery technology, a potential game-changer for the electric vehicle (EV) industry. The company's core innovation lies in its anode-less battery design and proprietary ceramic separator. This technology promises to deliver significantly higher energy density, enabling longer ranges for EVs, and faster charging times—addressing two of the biggest hurdles to widespread EV adoption.



As a pre-revenue company, traditional financial metrics like price-to-earnings ratios are not applicable. Investor focus is squarely on the company's technological progress and its path to commercialization. A key recent development is the successful implementation of its "Cobra" manufacturing process. This breakthrough is significant as it streamlines the production of the ceramic separator, a critical component of their batteries, paving the way for scalable manufacturing.


QuantumScape's most significant partnership is with automotive giant Volkswagen, which is not only a major investor but also has a joint venture with QS to industrialize the solid-state battery technology. This collaboration provides a clear route to market and validation from a leading automaker.

Financially, the company is operating on its cash reserves, which stood at approximately $1.14 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2025. With quarterly operating expenses and capital expenditures running in the tens of millions, this cash runway is a crucial factor for investors to monitor. The company's upcoming Q2 2025 earnings report on July 23, 2025, will be a key event, with investors looking for updates on the Cobra process, customer sample testing, and the overall timeline for commercial production.

Macro Environment: Riding the Wave of EV and Battery Market Growth

QuantumScape is positioned within two rapidly expanding markets: electric vehicles and advanced batteries. The global push towards decarbonization and supportive government policies are fueling a surge in EV demand. Projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other market research firms indicate that the EV market will continue its strong growth trajectory, with some forecasts suggesting that electric car sales could capture a significant portion of the new car market by 2030.


Within this burgeoning EV market, the development of next-generation batteries is a critical battleground. Solid-state batteries, in particular, are seen as the "holy grail" due to their potential for superior performance and safety compared to current lithium-ion technology. The solid-state battery market itself is projected to grow exponentially in the coming years, driven by the demand from the automotive sector.


However, QuantumScape is not alone in this race. Established battery manufacturers and other startups, including giants like Toyota and Samsung, are also investing heavily in solid-state battery research and development, creating a competitive landscape.

Forecast: High-Risk, High-Reward Outlook with Analyst Caution

The forecast for QuantumScape is characterized by a high degree of uncertainty, reflecting its pre-commercialization status. The company's stock is known for its volatility, often reacting sharply to news of technological milestones or setbacks.

Wall Street analyst ratings on QS are currently mixed, with a general sentiment leaning towards "hold" or "sell." The average price targets from analysts are varied, reflecting the wide range of potential outcomes. The cautious stance from many analysts stems from the inherent risks associated with bringing a new, complex technology to mass production. The timeline for achieving profitability remains a key question mark.


Recent positive momentum in the stock has been largely driven by the announcement of the Cobra manufacturing process, which has increased investor confidence in the company's ability to scale its technology. The upcoming Q2 earnings call will be a critical catalyst, with any positive updates on their technology and manufacturing progress potentially boosting the stock. Conversely, any delays or negative surprises could lead to a significant downturn.

In conclusion, an investment in QuantumScape is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. The company's innovative technology and strong partnership with Volkswagen present a compelling long-term growth story. However, the path to commercialization is fraught with challenges, and investors should be prepared for significant volatility and a long-term investment horizon. The company's ability to successfully execute its technology roadmap and manufacturing scale-up will ultimately determine its future success.

17 Jul

Catatan

Trimming 1/10 here.

17 Jul

Catatan

Other's not selling until $42!