SPY had every opportunity to make a new high today to achieve target #1 (4050-4100) but faded into the close while VIX increased even as SPY rose. IWM and QQQ are also both far off previous highs, and 10 year yields rose over 1.7% again. The conventional wisdom is that QQQ will follow SPY to new highs, but after a relatively weak bounce off the regression channel QQQ is once again just resting on it. Resting on the bottom of a multi-month channel even as SPY is making new highs is very concerning.
This is worth watching for parallels to the situation in 2000 where SPY hung around in a topping zone while QQQ made clearly lower highs.
Two scenarios for a short:
1. An attempted "break" above the descending trendline on low volume and CMF staying below its own falling trendline. Short at the 0.786 fib line with a stop loss just above IF SPY cannot make a new high (lower high scenario).
2. A strong rejection from the descending trendline leading ideally to a quick break of the regression trend.
All shorts void if SPY achieves a new closing high.
This is worth watching for parallels to the situation in 2000 where SPY hung around in a topping zone while QQQ made clearly lower highs.
Two scenarios for a short:
1. An attempted "break" above the descending trendline on low volume and CMF staying below its own falling trendline. Short at the 0.786 fib line with a stop loss just above IF SPY cannot make a new high (lower high scenario).
2. A strong rejection from the descending trendline leading ideally to a quick break of the regression trend.
All shorts void if SPY achieves a new closing high.
Trade aktif:
As suspected, the volume right now does not appear to be in consonance with an Inverse Head and Shoulders.
Short opportunity and easy stop loss placement.
As suspected, the volume right now does not appear to be in consonance with an Inverse Head and Shoulders.
Short opportunity and easy stop loss placement.
