1/7/25 - $pton - Ambiguous at $9, 2025 R/R poor
1/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
PTON
Ambiguous at $9, 2025 R/R poor
- have followed this yoga pants-wearing, starbucks guzzling, taylor swift blastin' name for some time
- first, the balance sheet/ net debt levels require some obvious cash flow generation to be neutralized... especially after a 2.5-3x move from floor
- on one hand the marginal change in sales (from -ve to +ve, probably in 4Q) is already baked in the calorie-free, guilt-free cake.
- and EBITDA mgn already forecasted at DD for this year and next, with not much expansion on the top line (which will at this stage take at LEAST 2-3 Q's - probably more - to get visibility on and materially alter real mkt consensus).
- so even if i assume 200 mm in 2026 fcf (another 20% bump to already likely bullish #s, i can only get to mid 3's - and for a lot of risk on a stretched out maxed out dopamine busted consumer). "yes" their B2B biz is awesome - top of the line - i love it. i do think mgmt gets a B+ all in...
- but friends don't let friends buy high teens EBITDA multiples for low DD's EBITDA growth on tough balance sheets, a name that's already worked (just don't chase it!) and a not-need-to-own name. if u like consumer discretionary just own
YETI, which is hard enough to own in this environment, but such a low-key sleep-at-night no bears in yo food middle of the night name).
as you can tell it's late. i'm reviewing some oldies i've never written up. maybe a bit more wit. excuse the hyperbole (i'm not restricted in terms of my investment committee anymore so i let it rip these days).
be well <3
V
PTONAmbiguous at $9, 2025 R/R poor
- have followed this yoga pants-wearing, starbucks guzzling, taylor swift blastin' name for some time
- first, the balance sheet/ net debt levels require some obvious cash flow generation to be neutralized... especially after a 2.5-3x move from floor
- on one hand the marginal change in sales (from -ve to +ve, probably in 4Q) is already baked in the calorie-free, guilt-free cake.
- and EBITDA mgn already forecasted at DD for this year and next, with not much expansion on the top line (which will at this stage take at LEAST 2-3 Q's - probably more - to get visibility on and materially alter real mkt consensus).
- so even if i assume 200 mm in 2026 fcf (another 20% bump to already likely bullish #s, i can only get to mid 3's - and for a lot of risk on a stretched out maxed out dopamine busted consumer). "yes" their B2B biz is awesome - top of the line - i love it. i do think mgmt gets a B+ all in...
- but friends don't let friends buy high teens EBITDA multiples for low DD's EBITDA growth on tough balance sheets, a name that's already worked (just don't chase it!) and a not-need-to-own name. if u like consumer discretionary just own
YETI, which is hard enough to own in this environment, but such a low-key sleep-at-night no bears in yo food middle of the night name).as you can tell it's late. i'm reviewing some oldies i've never written up. maybe a bit more wit. excuse the hyperbole (i'm not restricted in terms of my investment committee anymore so i let it rip these days).
be well <3
V
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.
Pernyataan Penyangkalan
Informasi dan publikasi tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan bukan merupakan saran keuangan, investasi, perdagangan, atau rekomendasi lainnya yang diberikan atau didukung oleh TradingView. Baca selengkapnya di Persyaratan Penggunaan.